Model Analytics
Performance metrics and model diagnostics
Active Model: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Accuracy
66.4%
Log Loss
0.608
ROC AUC
0.733
Engine 4.0 pure model. 50 features. Walk-forward validated.
Features: 50
elo_diflayoff_difform_difstriker_difgrappler_difreach_difage_difwin_difloss_difwin_streak_dif+40 more
Model Evolution & Architecture
The UFC Predictor has evolved through three major engine generations. Each iteration improved prediction accuracy by adding new feature categories and refining the ML architecture.
Multi-model ensemble with specialized trainers (XGBoost, LightGBM, Sklearn) and advanced preprocessing.
Key Improvements
- →Stacking ensemble with 4 base models
- →Feature preprocessing pipeline
- →Probability calibration (Platt scaling)
- →Finish method prediction (KO/SUB/DEC)
- →Mirror augmentation (2x training data)
Analyzed Factors
All Engine 2.0 factors
Striking efficiency (SLpM, SAcc)
Grappling control (TDAvg, TDAcc)
ELO momentum (recent ELO change)
Ranked opponent history
Title bout pressure analysis
Model Versions
ufc_predictor_v3_pure_20260512_2340055/12/2026
Active
91.4% accufc_predictor_v3_odds_20260512_2340055/12/202691.4% acc
ufc_predictor_v3_pure_20260512_2358425/12/2026
Active
55.8% accufc_predictor_v3_odds_20260512_2358425/12/202667.4% acc
ufc_predictor_v3_pure_20260513_0006075/13/2026
Active
55.8% accufc_predictor_v3_odds_20260513_0006075/13/202667.8% acc
ufc_predictor_v3_pure_20260513_0021205/13/2026
Active
55.6% accufc_predictor_v3_odds_20260513_0021205/13/202667.6% acc
ufc_predictor_v3_pure_20260513_0252105/13/2026
Active
55.8% accufc_predictor_v3_odds_20260513_0252105/13/202668.7% acc
ufc_predictor_v3_pure_20260513_0252215/13/2026
Active
55.8% accufc_predictor_v3_odds_20260513_0252215/13/202668.7% acc
ufc_v3_pure_sklearn_20260516_0530345/16/2026
Active
65.5% accufc_v3_odds_sklearn_20260516_0530345/16/202665.5% acc
ufc_v3_pure_sklearn_20260516_0540595/16/2026
Active
63.8% accufc_v3_odds_sklearn_20260516_0540595/16/202669.0% acc
ufc_v3_pure_sklearn_20260516_0648425/16/2026
Active
64.1% accufc_v3_odds_sklearn_20260516_0648425/16/202668.6% acc
ufc_v3_pure_sklearn_20260516_0649315/16/2026
Active
64.0% accufc_v3_odds_sklearn_20260516_0649315/16/202668.6% acc
ufc_v3_pure_sklearn_20260516_0659105/16/2026
Active
64.4% accufc_v3_odds_sklearn_20260516_0659105/16/202668.6% acc
ufc_v3_pure_sklearn_20260516_0710235/16/202664.2% acc
ufc_v3_pure_lightgbm_20260516_0710235/16/2026
Active
64.7% accufc_v3_pure_ensemble_20260516_0710235/16/202664.5% acc
ufc_v3_odds_sklearn_20260516_0710235/16/202668.6% acc
ufc_v3_odds_lightgbm_20260516_0710235/16/202669.7% acc
ufc_v3_odds_ensemble_20260516_0710235/16/202669.5% acc
ufc_v3_pure_sklearn_20260516_0714415/16/202664.1% acc
ufc_v3_pure_lightgbm_20260516_0714415/16/202664.6% acc
ufc_v3_pure_ensemble_20260516_0714415/16/2026
Active
64.3% accufc_v3_odds_sklearn_20260516_0714415/16/202668.6% acc
ufc_v3_odds_lightgbm_20260516_0714415/16/202669.6% acc
ufc_v3_odds_ensemble_20260516_0714415/16/202669.6% acc
ufc_v3_pure_sklearn_20260516_0717245/16/202664.1% acc
ufc_v3_pure_xgboost_20260516_0717245/16/202664.0% acc
ufc_v3_pure_lightgbm_20260516_0717245/16/202664.6% acc
ufc_v3_pure_ensemble_20260516_0717245/16/2026
Active
64.9% accufc_v3_odds_sklearn_20260516_0717245/16/202668.6% acc
ufc_v3_odds_xgboost_20260516_0717245/16/202671.4% acc
ufc_v3_odds_lightgbm_20260516_0717245/16/202670.4% acc
ufc_v3_odds_ensemble_20260516_0717245/16/202670.3% acc
Feature Categories (Active Model)
Core (11)
ELO, Age, Records, Form, Layoff
Striking (6)
SLpM, Accuracy, Striker rating
Grappling (8)
TD Average, Sub attempts, Control
Context (4)
Title bouts, Rankings, Physical
No prediction history yet
Stats will appear once fights conclude.
Model Versions
ufc_v4_odds_ensemble_20260517_121258
Trained: 5/17/2026
Engine 4.0 odds_aware model. 50 features. Walk-forward validated.
71.0%
50 features
ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258ACTIVE
Trained: 5/17/2026
Engine 4.0 pure model. 50 features. Walk-forward validated.
66.4%
50 features
ufc_v4_odds_ensemble_20260517_120827
Trained: 5/17/2026
Engine 4.0 odds_aware model. 50 features. Walk-forward validated.
69.5%
50 features
ufc_v4_pure_sklearn_histgb_20260517_120827ACTIVE
Trained: 5/17/2026
Engine 4.0 pure model. 50 features. Walk-forward validated.
67.2%
50 features
ufc_v4_odds_ensemble_20260517_110941
Trained: 5/17/2026
Engine 4.0 odds_aware model. 50 features. Walk-forward validated.
69.5%
50 features
ufc_v4_pure_sklearn_histgb_20260517_110941ACTIVE
Trained: 5/17/2026
Engine 4.0 pure model. 50 features. Walk-forward validated.
67.2%
50 features
ufc_v4_odds_ensemble_20260517_110308
Trained: 5/17/2026
Engine 4.0 odds_aware model. 50 features. Walk-forward validated.
69.7%
50 features
ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_110308ACTIVE
Trained: 5/17/2026
Engine 4.0 pure model. 50 features. Walk-forward validated.
67.4%
50 features
ufc_v3_odds_ensemble_20260516_071724
Trained: 5/16/2026
odds_aware model. 41 features.
70.3%
41 features
ufc_v3_odds_lightgbm_20260516_071724
Trained: 5/16/2026
odds_aware model. 41 features.
70.4%
41 features
ufc_v3_odds_xgboost_20260516_071724
Trained: 5/16/2026
odds_aware model. 41 features.
71.4%
41 features
ufc_v3_odds_sklearn_20260516_071724
Trained: 5/16/2026
odds_aware model. 41 features.
68.6%
41 features
ufc_v3_pure_ensemble_20260516_071724ACTIVE
Trained: 5/16/2026
pure model. 40 features.
64.9%
40 features
ufc_v3_pure_lightgbm_20260516_071724
Trained: 5/16/2026
pure model. 40 features.
64.6%
40 features
ufc_v3_pure_xgboost_20260516_071724
Trained: 5/16/2026
pure model. 40 features.
64.0%
40 features
ufc_v3_pure_sklearn_20260516_071724
Trained: 5/16/2026
pure model. 40 features.
64.1%
40 features
ufc_v3_odds_ensemble_20260516_071441
Trained: 5/16/2026
odds_aware model. 41 features.
69.6%
41 features
ufc_v3_odds_lightgbm_20260516_071441
Trained: 5/16/2026
odds_aware model. 41 features.
69.6%
41 features
ufc_v3_odds_sklearn_20260516_071441
Trained: 5/16/2026
odds_aware model. 41 features.
68.6%
41 features
ufc_v3_pure_ensemble_20260516_071441ACTIVE
Trained: 5/16/2026
pure model. 40 features.
64.3%
40 features
ufc_v3_pure_lightgbm_20260516_071441
Trained: 5/16/2026
pure model. 40 features.
64.6%
40 features
ufc_v3_pure_sklearn_20260516_071441
Trained: 5/16/2026
pure model. 40 features.
64.1%
40 features
ufc_v3_odds_ensemble_20260516_071023
Trained: 5/16/2026
odds_aware model. 41 features.
69.5%
41 features
ufc_v3_odds_lightgbm_20260516_071023
Trained: 5/16/2026
odds_aware model. 41 features.
69.7%
41 features
ufc_v3_odds_sklearn_20260516_071023
Trained: 5/16/2026
odds_aware model. 41 features.
68.6%
41 features
ufc_v3_pure_ensemble_20260516_071023
Trained: 5/16/2026
pure model. 40 features.
64.5%
40 features
ufc_v3_pure_lightgbm_20260516_071023ACTIVE
Trained: 5/16/2026
pure model. 40 features.
64.7%
40 features
ufc_v3_pure_sklearn_20260516_071023
Trained: 5/16/2026
pure model. 40 features.
64.2%
40 features
ufc_v3_odds_sklearn_20260516_065910
Trained: 5/16/2026
odds_aware model. 41 features.
68.6%
41 features
ufc_v3_pure_sklearn_20260516_065910ACTIVE
Trained: 5/16/2026
pure model. 40 features.
64.4%
40 features
ufc_v3_odds_sklearn_20260516_064931
Trained: 5/16/2026
odds_aware model. 41 features.
68.6%
41 features
ufc_v3_pure_sklearn_20260516_064931ACTIVE
Trained: 5/16/2026
pure model. 40 features.
64.0%
40 features
ufc_v3_odds_sklearn_20260516_064842
Trained: 5/16/2026
odds_aware model. 41 features.
68.6%
41 features
ufc_v3_pure_sklearn_20260516_064842ACTIVE
Trained: 5/16/2026
pure model. 40 features.
64.1%
40 features
ufc_v3_odds_sklearn_20260516_054059
Trained: 5/16/2026
odds_aware model. 41 features.
69.0%
41 features
ufc_v3_pure_sklearn_20260516_054059ACTIVE
Trained: 5/16/2026
pure model. 40 features.
63.8%
40 features
ufc_v3_odds_sklearn_20260516_053034
Trained: 5/16/2026
odds_aware model. 22 features.
65.5%
22 features
ufc_v3_pure_sklearn_20260516_053034ACTIVE
Trained: 5/16/2026
pure model. 22 features.
65.5%
22 features
sklearn_gb_tuned_v2_20260514_122511
Trained: 5/14/2026
Trained on 526 fights. File: models/sklearn_gb_tuned_v2_20260514_122511.pkl
79.2%
26 features
sklearn_gb_tuned_v2_20260514_121502
Trained: 5/14/2026
Trained on 526 fights. File: models/sklearn_gb_tuned_v2_20260514_121502.pkl
79.2%
26 features
sklearn_gb_tuned_v2_20260514_114504
Trained: 5/14/2026
Trained on 526 fights. File: models/sklearn_gb_tuned_v2_20260514_114504.pkl
86.9%
26 features
sklearn_gb_tuned_v2_20260514_102552
Trained: 5/14/2026
REVERTED - leakage: fighter-table stats are career-current, not point-in-time
86.9%
32 features
sklearn_gb_tuned_v2_20260514_102310
Trained: 5/14/2026
REVERTED - leakage: fighter-table stats are career-current, not point-in-time
86.9%
32 features
v1.0ACTIVE
Trained: 5/13/2026
Initial baseline with Elo, form, and striking differentials
0 features
ufc_predictor_v3_odds_20260513_025221
Trained: 5/13/2026
Odds-aware model. 35 features.
68.7%
35 features
ufc_predictor_v3_pure_20260513_025221ACTIVE
Trained: 5/13/2026
Pure model (no odds). 34 features. Tested on 1069 fights.
55.8%
34 features
ufc_predictor_v3_odds_20260513_025210
Trained: 5/13/2026
Odds-aware model. 35 features.
68.7%
35 features
ufc_predictor_v3_pure_20260513_025210ACTIVE
Trained: 5/13/2026
Pure model (no odds). 34 features. Tested on 1069 fights.
55.8%
34 features
ufc_predictor_v3_odds_20260513_002120
Trained: 5/13/2026
Odds-aware model. 35 features.
67.6%
35 features
ufc_predictor_v3_pure_20260513_002120ACTIVE
Trained: 5/13/2026
Pure model (no odds). 34 features. Tested on 1069 fights.
55.6%
34 features
ufc_predictor_v3_odds_20260513_000607
Trained: 5/13/2026
Odds-aware model. 35 features.
67.8%
35 features
ufc_predictor_v3_pure_20260513_000607ACTIVE
Trained: 5/13/2026
Pure model (no odds). 34 features. Tested on 1069 fights.
55.8%
34 features
ufc_predictor_v3_odds_20260512_235842
Trained: 5/12/2026
Odds-aware model. 35 features.
67.4%
35 features
ufc_predictor_v3_pure_20260512_235842ACTIVE
Trained: 5/12/2026
Pure model (no odds). 34 features. Tested on 1069 fights.
55.8%
34 features
ufc_predictor_v3_odds_20260512_234005
Trained: 5/12/2026
Odds-aware model. 35 features.
91.4%
35 features
ufc_predictor_v3_pure_20260512_234005ACTIVE
Trained: 5/12/2026
Pure model (no odds). 34 features. Tested on 1069 fights.
91.4%
34 features
sklearn_gb_baseline_v1_20260511_115142ACTIVE
Trained: 5/11/2026
Trained on 806 fights. File: models/sklearn_gb_baseline_v1_20260511_115142.pkl
100.0%
26 features