UFCPredictor

ELO Rankings

ML skill ratings derived from finish-weighted ELO over every UFC fight. Active fighters only — competed within the last 18 months.

How our ELO works

We adapted the chess ELO formula for MMA — accounting for how a fighter wins, not just whether they win.

Full breakdown

Finish bonus

KO/TKO wins carry 20% more ELO weight. Submission wins 15% more. A dominant finish proves more than a close decision.

Recency weighting

A fight from 3 years ago counts ~5% as much as a fight from last month. Your latest form matters most.

Hot/cold streaks

3+ consecutive wins amplify K-factor by 30%. Fighters on losing streaks face higher volatility — momentum is real.

Inactivity decay

Fighters inactive for 30+ months drift toward the median. Rankings only show fighters active within 18 months.

ELO Scale

< 1 400

Developing

Building experience in the UFC

1 400–1 500

Contender

Competitive at the top level

1 500–1 600

Elite

Consistent top-5 calibre

> 1 600

Champion tier

Best in the world

Men's Divisions

Strawweight

115 lbs

No active fighters yet.

Women's Divisions