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Predictions Fighters Calendar Rankings Us vs Vegas Track Record

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Predictions Fighters Calendar Rankings Us vs Vegas Track Record

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An AI prediction engine for UFC fights. Built on public fight data, trained on seven thousand bouts. Not affiliated with UFC.

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Us vs Vegas
Betting ROI
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Engine 4.0 System
How our ELO works
Our Philosophy
What predicts fights
Model analytics
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Engine 4.0 — XGBoost + LightGBM + HistGradientBoosting

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For entertainment only. Not betting advice. 18+.

ELO Rankings

ML skill ratings derived from finish-weighted ELO over every UFC fight. Active fighters only (last 18 months).

Active fighters443Fought in last 18 months

Elite tier01800+ ELO

Biggest 30d move+1Abdul Razak Alhassan

Biggest 30d drop−4Joshua Van

Most movementLW28 fighters shifting

Rising momentum

The Surge

6

1578 ELO#1 in div

1578 ELO#1 in div

Melquizael Costa

1577 ELO#2 in div

Waldo Cortes Acosta

1576 ELO#1 in div

Quillan Salkilld

1574 ELO#1 in div

1571 ELO#1 in div

Falling momentum

The Fall

6

Reinier de Ridder

1526 ELO#19 in div

1509 ELO#32 in div

Jailton Almeida

1509 ELO#17 in div

1506 ELO#40 in div

1505 ELO#41 in div

1505 ELO#43 in div

MethodologyHow Fight Detective ranks fighters

↓

The concept

Beat a great fighter, gain a lot. Beat a weaker fighter, gain a little. Lose to anyone and you lose points. Every UFC fight ever has been replayed through the model to produce the ratings on this page.

What the tiers mean

Elite1800+World class. Pound-for-pound territory.

Top1700–1799Title contender range. Champions live here.

Contender1600–1699Divisional threats. Top-15 caliber.

Mid1500–1599Established UFC-level fighter.

Developing<1500Still proving themselves.

What moves the rating

Finish bonusFinishes earn more

KO/TKO = 1.20× K-factor. Submission = 1.15×. Decision = 1.0×.

Recency decayOld wins fade

Fights older than ~18 months count less. The K-factor decays exponentially.

Streak multiplierMomentum matters

A 3-fight win streak boosts K by 1.30×. A 2-fight skid boosts loss K by 1.35×.

Veteran scaleChampions are harder to move

After 20 fights, K drops to 0.8× — ratings of veterans move more slowly.

Velocity bonusActive = rewarded

Each of the last 12 months' fights adds 0.08× K (capped at 1.5×).

Inactivity decaySitting out costs

After 30 months out, ELO drifts back toward 1490 — career death.

Ratings update automatically after each completed UFC event. Pre-fight predictions you see elsewhere on the site are generated by a separate ML model that uses these ratings as one of its inputs.

Men's Divisions

Strawweight

115 lbs

No active fighters yet.

Flyweight

#2Tatsuro Taira1546
#3Asu Almabayev1539
#4Andre Lima1537
#5Alden Coria1535

Active distribution· 5

Full rankings→

Bantamweight

#1Farid Basharat

#2Elijah Smith1551
#3David Martinez1547
#4Raul Rosas Jr.1546
#5Merab Dvalishvili1544

Active distribution· 5

Full rankings→

Featherweight

#1Kevin Vallejos

#2Melquizael Costa1577
#3Mairon Santos1560
#4Jean Silva1559
#5Steve Garcia1552

Active distribution· 5

Full rankings→

Lightweight

#1Quillan Salkilld

#2Benoit Saint Denis1564
#3Chris Padilla1550
#4Chris Duncan1550
#5Fares Ziam1544

Active distribution· 5

Full rankings→

Welterweight

#1Michael Morales

#2Carlos Prates1552
#3Myktybek Orolbai1551
#4Gabriel Bonfim1548
#5Jacobe Smith1548

Active distribution· 5

Full rankings→

Middleweight

#1Ateba Gautier

#2Christian Leroy Duncan1559
#3Joe Pyfer1555
#4Gregory Rodrigues1550
#5Yousri Belgaroui1547

Active distribution· 5

Full rankings→

Light Heavyweight

#1Navajo Stirling

#2Carlos Ulberg1555
#3Azamat Murzakanov1551
#4Billy Elekana1546
#5Bogdan Guskov1542

Active distribution· 5

Full rankings→

Heavyweight

#1Waldo Cortes Acosta

#2Valter Walker1556
#3Mario Pinto1551
#4Vitor Petrino1545
#5Josh Hokit1542

Active distribution· 5

Full rankings→

Women's Divisions

Women's Strawweight

#1Alexia Thainara

#2Gillian Robertson1546
#3Denise Gomes1540
#4Fatima Kline1540
#5Talita Alencar1528

Active distribution· 5

Full rankings→

Women's Flyweight

#1Natalia Silva

#2Carli Judice1544
#3Erin Blanchfield1530
#4Jasmine Jasudavicius1529
#5Valentina Shevchenko1528

Active distribution· 5

Full rankings→

Women's Bantamweight

#1Jacqueline Cavalcanti

#2Ailin Perez1548
#3Joselyne Edwards1548
#4Bia Mesquita1540
#5Luana Santos1537

Active distribution· 5

Full rankings→

Women's Featherweight

145 lbs

No active fighters yet.