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Understand the fight before you trust the pick.

Fight Detective is a public UFC research platform built around one simple idea: predictions become useful when the data, timing, reasoning and mistakes remain visible.

The premise

MMA is uncertain. The record should not be.

Most fight discussion disappears after the event. Confident calls are remembered; misses become vague; updated data gets mixed into old predictions. That makes it difficult to tell insight from hindsight.

We built Fight Detective to keep the full chain visible: the matchup data, the model version, the prediction, the timestamp and the settled result. Engine 7.0 is the current production system, but the product is bigger than one model—it is the paper trail around every claim.

A fight is a data problem

Styles, activity, age, reach, defence, durability, opposition and recent form interact. One headline statistic is never the whole matchup.

A prediction needs a timestamp

A pick only means something when it was recorded before the result. We preserve the model version, prediction time and event identity.

Confidence is not certainty

A probability describes uncertainty; it does not promise an outcome. MMA remains noisy, and honest misses stay visible.

What you can do here

Four ways into the same fight.

Start with the surface that answers your question, then follow the links deeper.

Historical replay

What would this engine calculate?

A retrospective replay applies a frozen model to completed fights. It is useful for inspecting behaviour across many matchups, but it is not the same as a prediction publicly sealed before fight night.

Sealed live record

What did the engine say beforehand?

A live prediction is timestamped and locked before the declared cutoff, then settled against the official result. This is the stronger evidence and the record we intend to grow event by event.

Follow the next event from prediction to result.

Explore the next UFC card now, then return after the event to see the result without a rewritten story.

Independent research for entertainment and education. Not affiliated with UFC. Not betting advice.