Our Philosophy
How we think about predicting fights — the principles behind presenting the de-vigged market probability honestly and keeping our model as a research signal.
The one idea everything rests on
The market is the benchmark. We present the de-vigged market probability for every fight and keep our model as a research signal — because under a pre-committed test it did not beat the market. We prove everything in public and we don't claim a betting edge.
Six principles
Calibration, not raw accuracy
Being right isn't the same as being well-calibrated. Picking heavy favorites can look smart while telling you nothing the market didn't already price. We anchor to the de-vigged market probability and judge ourselves on calibration, not on a headline hit-rate.
Know what you don't know
On most fights the model has nothing to add beyond the market. We say so plainly rather than manufacture a signal to fill a card. Restraint beats false confidence.
Calibrated and honest
A 65% from us should win about 65% of the time. We calibrate probabilities so the number means what it says — no inflated confidence to make a pick look stronger than the data supports.
Respect variance
A good prediction can miss and a poor one can land. We judge the model by calibration over hundreds of fights — not by the result of any single night.
Show our work
Every prediction is graded against the real result. The full track record, backtests, and even our worst misses are public — wins and losses, nothing hidden.
The market is the benchmark
Vegas is sharp. Our benchmark isn't a coin flip — it's the closing line. Under a pre-committed test the model did not beat the market, so we present the de-vigged market probability as the headline and treat the model as a research signal, not an edge.
What we're not
- ✕A “lock of the day” account. Guaranteed winners don't exist; anyone selling them is selling variance back to you.
- ✕A hype machine. We'd rather post a SKIP than manufacture a play to fill a card.
- ✕Financial advice. This is data and analysis for entertainment. Never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Don't take our word for it
The principles only matter if the results hold up. See for yourself.