UFCPredictor

AI-powered fight predictions trained on thousands of historical UFC bouts.

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Engine 4.0 — XGBoost + LightGBM + Stacking Ensemble

For entertainment purposes only. Not financial advice.

FIGHTDETECTIVE
DashboardUpcoming fightsPredictionsCalendarFightersTrackerHistoryAnalyticsThis week's picks
AI prediction engine

The machine learning model that calls UFC fights before they happen.

Fight Detective is an AI prediction engine trained on thousands of historical UFC fights. Every prediction logged before the cage closes. No rewrites. No hindsight. See our track record vs Vegas →

See proof: Model vs Vegas→This week's predictions
MODEL ACCURACYLIVE
71%
Walk-forward accuracy across historical fights.
v0.1ACCURACY × MODEL VERSIONSv1.7
7.2k
Fights
analyzed
98
Predictions
logged
Methodology

Three layers between fight data and prediction.

No black box. Here's exactly how the model arrives at every probability you see.

01
Training data
Six thousand fights, every one.
The model learns from every UFC fight in the modern era — fighter stats, fight outcomes, weight classes, layoffs, ranks, and matchup context. Every detail of every bout, parsed and structured.
02
Machine learning
Patterns humans miss.
Gradient boosting on engineered features: fighter form, layoff time, style matchups, Elo ratings, and momentum signals across recent fights. The model identifies interactions no analyst would spot.
03
Walk-forward testing
Honest accuracy. No hindsight.
Every version of the model is tested on fights that happened after its training window. The 71% accuracy you see is what the model actually does on new, unseen fights — not curve-fitted to history.
Inputs

What the model analyzes.

No expert opinions. No vibes. Just fighter performance data, processed at scale.

FEATURE_PIPELINE.LOG6 ACTIVE
[01]
Physical stats
Height, reach, stance, age — the matchup-defining variables.
OK
[02]
Career performance
Strike rates, takedown rates, win streaks, finish history.
OK
[03]
Fight context
Weight class, title bout, ring rust, championship rounds.
OK
[04]
Style indicators
Striker score, grappler score — how each fighter actually fights.
OK
[05]
Elo ratings
Strength-of-schedule weighted. Updated after every fight.
OK
[06]
Recent form
Last-N performance, momentum, and trajectory metrics.
OK
Our strategy

We make money by knowing when NOT to bet.

940 fights backtested. The model doesn't just predict winners — it tells you which fights are worth your money.

Strong Bet
+33.5%
ROI on 65 bets
Model disagrees with Vegas, high confidence, large edge
Bet
+6.7%
ROI on 149 bets
Model disagrees with Vegas with meaningful edge
Lean
+9.2%
ROI on 370 bets
Model has a slight edge worth considering
Skip
-4.2%
ROI on 356 bets
No clear edge — the system says sit this one out
Blindly bet Vegas favorites
+$355
940 bets · $94,000 risked · 0.4% ROI
What most bettors do. Barely breaks even.
Only bet when we disagree with Vegas
+$3,170
214 bets · $21,400 risked · 14.8% ROI
Skip 726 fights. Only bet when we see real value.
Bet every fight we see any edge
+$6,583
584 bets · $58,400 risked · 11.3% ROI
Most profit, but needs 3x the capital.
See the full strategy breakdown →
FIGHTDETECTIVE

An AI prediction engine for UFC fights. Built with public fight data. Not affiliated with UFC.

PredictionsHow it worksTrack recordError analysis
This week

The model has made its picks.

Every fight on the upcoming card, scored by the model with a confidence rating from high to toss-up.

Moderate
Flyweight
Alessandro Costa
3-3-0 · AGE 30
3.7SLPM
0.8TD/15
L1STREAK
PROBABILITY
56%44%
Stewart Nicoll
0-2-0 · AGE 29
3.6SLPM
1.6TD/15
L2STREAK
Moderate
Bantamweight
Ethyn Ewing
1-0-0 · AGE 30
7.4SLPM
1.7TD/15
W1STREAK
PROBABILITY
55%45%
Rafael Estevam
4-0-0 · AGE 29
2.4SLPM
4.9TD/15
W4STREAK
Moderate
Women's Flyweight
Dione Barbosa
3-2-0 · AGE 33
2.2SLPM
2.4TD/15
L1STREAK
PROBABILITY
61%39%
Melissa Gatto
3-2-0 · AGE 29
3.5SLPM
1.8TD/15
W1STREAK
Moderate
Lightweight
Renato Moicano
12-7-0 · AGE 36
4.1SLPM
1.7TD/15
L2STREAK
PROBABILITY
61%39%
Chris Duncan
7-2-0 · AGE 32
4.8SLPM
2.9TD/15
W4STREAK
Moderate
Women's Strawweight
Virna Jandiroba
8-4-0 · AGE 37
2.3SLPM
3.1TD/15
L1STREAK
PROBABILITY
61%39%
Tabatha Ricci
7-3-0 · AGE 31
4.0SLPM
2.5TD/15
W1STREAK
Moderate
Light Heavyweight
Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev
2-0-0 · AGE 25
7.4SLPM
11.5TD/15
W2STREAK
PROBABILITY
58%42%
Brendson Ribeiro
3-4-0 · AGE 29
3.0SLPM
0.8TD/15
L2STREAK
Moderate
Heavyweight
Guilherme Pat
1-0-0 · AGE 31
2.7SLPM
0.0TD/15
W1STREAK
PROBABILITY
58%42%
Thomas Petersen
3-3-0 · AGE 31
3.1SLPM
3.0TD/15
L1STREAK
Moderate
Lightweight
Lando Vannata
4-7-0 · AGE 34
4.5SLPM
1.2TD/15
L2STREAK
PROBABILITY
57%43%
Darrius Flowers
1-3-0 · AGE 31
3.1SLPM
1.6TD/15
L3STREAK
Moderate
Women's Bantamweight
Alice Pereira
0-1-0 · AGE 20
2.8SLPM
0.0TD/15
L1STREAK
PROBABILITY
58%42%
Hailey Cowan
1-2-0 · AGE 34
2.7SLPM
1.9TD/15
L2STREAK
Toss-up
Middleweight
Azamat Bekoev
2-1-0 · AGE 30
4.6SLPM
3.5TD/15
L1STREAK
PROBABILITY
51%49%
Tresean Gore
2-4-0 · AGE 31
3.4SLPM
1.9TD/15
L2STREAK
Moderate
Flyweight
Alessandro Costa
3-3-0 · AGE 30
3.7SLPM
0.8TD/15
L1STREAK
PROBABILITY
56%44%
Stewart Nicoll
0-2-0 · AGE 29
3.6SLPM
1.6TD/15
L2STREAK
Toss-up
Bantamweight
Ethyn Ewing
1-0-0 · AGE 30
7.4SLPM
1.7TD/15
W1STREAK
PROBABILITY
53%47%
Rafael Estevam
4-0-0 · AGE 29
2.4SLPM
4.9TD/15
W4STREAK
Toss-up
Women's Flyweight
Dione Barbosa
3-2-0 · AGE 33
2.2SLPM
2.4TD/15
L1STREAK
PROBABILITY
52%48%
Melissa Gatto
3-2-0 · AGE 29
3.5SLPM
1.8TD/15
W1STREAK
Moderate
Lightweight
Renato Moicano
12-7-0 · AGE 36
4.1SLPM
1.7TD/15
L2STREAK
PROBABILITY
56%44%
Chris Duncan
7-2-0 · AGE 32
4.8SLPM
2.9TD/15
W4STREAK
Moderate
Women's Strawweight
Virna Jandiroba
8-4-0 · AGE 37
2.3SLPM
3.1TD/15
L1STREAK
PROBABILITY
60%40%
Tabatha Ricci
7-3-0 · AGE 31
4.0SLPM
2.5TD/15
W1STREAK
High confidence
Light Heavyweight
Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev
2-0-0 · AGE 25
7.4SLPM
11.5TD/15
W2STREAK
PROBABILITY
70%30%
Brendson Ribeiro
3-4-0 · AGE 29
3.0SLPM
0.8TD/15
L2STREAK
High confidence
Heavyweight
Guilherme Pat
1-0-0 · AGE 31
2.7SLPM
0.0TD/15
W1STREAK
PROBABILITY
69%31%
Thomas Petersen
3-3-0 · AGE 31
3.1SLPM
3.0TD/15
L1STREAK
High confidence
Lightweight
Lando Vannata
4-7-0 · AGE 34
4.5SLPM
1.2TD/15
L2STREAK
PROBABILITY
66%34%
Darrius Flowers
1-3-0 · AGE 31
3.1SLPM
1.6TD/15
L3STREAK
Moderate
Women's Bantamweight
Alice Pereira
0-1-0 · AGE 20
2.8SLPM
0.0TD/15
L1STREAK
PROBABILITY
56%44%
Hailey Cowan
1-2-0 · AGE 34
2.7SLPM
1.9TD/15
L2STREAK
Moderate
Middleweight
Azamat Bekoev
2-1-0 · AGE 30
4.6SLPM
3.5TD/15
L1STREAK
PROBABILITY
57%43%
Tresean Gore
2-4-0 · AGE 31
3.4SLPM
1.9TD/15
L2STREAK
Track record

Every call we've made. Wins and losses.

Every prediction logged before the fight. We publish the misses too.

Overall accuracy
71%
Across 0 walk-forward predictions, all logged before the fight.
Predictions
0
Logged before each fight night.
High-conf hits
—
Accuracy when model confidence > 65%.
DateFightConfidenceOur pickActualResult
See all 0 predictions →