Historical Accuracy Test
Pick the winner on 10 historical UFC fights. The model made these predictions during walk-forward backtest with no knowledge of the outcome.
Random Test
10 fully random fights from the backtest data. No Vegas odds shown.
Disagreement Test
10 fights where the model disagreed with Vegas by more than 10%. Vegas odds shown.
Model performance on these fights:
- Overall accuracy: 57.1% (1,793 predictions)
- On Vegas disagreements >10%: 55.7% (N=1,087)
- Strongest edge on long layoffs: 59.6%
- Weakest on title bouts: 51.4%