The Dataset Behind the Model

Coverage, distribution, and growth of the UFC stats history that powers our predictions.

7,213

Completed fights

Upcoming fights tracked

4,564

Fighters with career stats

UFC Events by Year

The promotion grew from ~4 events/year in the mid-90s to ~40 events/year by the early 2010s. Sample-size depth is much stronger for modern fights than pre-2010 ones.

How UFC fights end

Across all completed UFC fights in the dataset.

Other527(52.7%)

KO / TKO310(31.0%)

Submission163(16.3%)

Top host countries

Where UFC events happen. The USA hosts roughly 70% of all events (and Nevada hosts about half of those).

USA678

Australia42

United Kingdom40

China38

Canada32

Brazil27

Mexico25

United Arab Emirates25

France20

10.

Qatar14

11.

Azerbaijan13

12.

Saudi Arabia13

13.

Germany7

14.

Croatia6

15.

Japan6

Where the data comes from

Fight-by-fight totals (strikes, takedowns, control time, knockdowns, target zones, position distributions) and per-round breakdowns are scraped from the official UFC statistics source. Career-rate stats (SLpM, SApM, Str_Def, TD_Def, TD_Avg, Sub_Avg) and physical profile data (height, reach, stance, DOB) come from the same source per-fighter.

Vegas odds are sourced from public sportsbook archives. Our predictions are generated by an XGBoost classifier trained on engineered features including ELO, recency, layoff, and opponent-quality differentials.

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