Rafael TobiasvsDiyar Nurgozhay

UFC Event · Saturday, March 7, 2026 · Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA

Model Prediction: Rafael Tobias wins(55.0%)

Actual result: Diyar Nurgozhay wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258

Incorrect

Tale of the Tape

Rafael Tobias

Red Corner

Diyar Nurgozhay

Blue Corner

-174

(64%)

Vegas Odds

+146

(41%)

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'2"

Height

6'2"

187.96 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Career Averages (per fight)

2.8

Sig. Strikes

4.5

2.4

Takedowns

1.4

1.6

Sub Attempts

0.0

Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)

RedElo RatingBlue

+32.5-32.5

RedForm ScoreBlue

+1.0-1.0

RedStriker ScoreBlue

+49.5-49.5

RedGrappler ScoreBlue

+49.6-49.6

Rafael Tobias

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights1

Diyar Nurgozhay

StanceSouthpaw

Height74.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights3