Julian ErosavsMelquizael Costa

UFC Event · Saturday, May 17, 2025 · Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA

Model Prediction: Julian Erosa wins(70.4%)

Actual result: Melquizael Costa wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258

Incorrect

Tale of the Tape

Julian Erosa

Red Corner

Melquizael Costa

Blue Corner

+138

(42%)

Vegas Odds

-164

(62%)

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

6'1"

Height

5'10"

187.96 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Career Averages (per fight)

6.2

Sig. Strikes

4.4

1.7

Takedowns

2.0

0.7

Sub Attempts

1.1

Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)

RedElo RatingBlue

+15.1-15.1

RedLayoff (days)Blue

-14.014.0

RedForm ScoreBlue

-0.00.0

RedStriker ScoreBlue

+0.6-0.6

RedGrappler ScoreBlue

-0.10.1

Julian Erosa

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights18

Melquizael Costa

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights9