Justin GaethjevsPaddy Pimblett

UFC Event · Saturday, January 24, 2026 · Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA

Model Prediction: Justin Gaethje wins(56.9%)

Actual result: Justin Gaethje wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258

Correct

Tale of the Tape

Justin Gaethje

Red Corner

Paddy Pimblett

Blue Corner

+200

(33%)

Vegas Odds

-245

(71%)

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'10"

177.8 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Career Averages (per fight)

6.5

Sig. Strikes

5.5

0.3

Takedowns

0.7

0.0

Sub Attempts

1.2

Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)

RedElo RatingBlue

+4.8-4.8

RedLayoff (days)Blue

+35.0-35.0

RedForm ScoreBlue

-0.50.5

RedStriker ScoreBlue

+1.7-1.7

RedGrappler ScoreBlue

-0.40.4

Justin Gaethje

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights15

Paddy Pimblett

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights8