Lightweight
3 Rounds
Jai Herbert won · KO/TKO R1
Elo—
Elo1495
Mandel NallovsJai Herbert
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott · Saturday, April 18, 2026Winnipeg, Canada
Style matchup
Model Prediction: Mandel Nallo wins(55.0%)
Scouting Report
- Mandel Nallo has 34pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Mandel Nallo
Jai Herbert
—
Vegas Odds
—
N/A
1495
36
38
Orthodox
Orthodox
6'0"
6'1"
190.5 cm
195.58 cm
Recent Form
Mandel Nallo
Jai Herbert
oldest →
KOvs Ilia Topuria · Mar 22
vs Kyle Nelson · Jul 22
vs Fares Ziam · Jul 23
vs Rolando Bedoya · Aug 24
vs Chris Padilla · Mar 25
latestOutput & Defense Comparison
Mandel NalloMetricJai Herbert
8.26
Strikes / min
3.19
5.03
Strikes absorbed / min
3.34
54%
Strike defense
52%
0.00
TDs / 15 min
0.42
100%
Takedown defense
66%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.
Recent Elo Trajectory
Mandel NalloJai Herbert
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Mandel Nallo
StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights0
Jai Herbert
StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights8