Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Colby Thicknesse won · Decision R3
Elo1506
Elo1473
Colby ThicknessevsVince Morales
UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates · Saturday, May 2, 2026Perth, Australia
Model Prediction: Colby Thicknesse wins(64.6%)
Scouting Report
- Vince Morales enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- Vince Morales has 30pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Colby Thicknesse
Vince Morales
—
Vegas Odds
—
1506
1473
27
35
Orthodox
Orthodox
5'7"
5'7"
175.26 cm
177.8 cm
Recent Form
Colby Thicknesse
oldest →
vs Aleksandre Topuria · Feb 25
vs Josias Musasa · Sep 25
latestVince Morales
oldest →
vs Jonathan Martinez · May 22
vs Miles Johns · Nov 22
vs Taylor Lapilus · Sep 24
vs Elijah Smith · Feb 25
vs Raul Rosas Jr. · Mar 25
latestOutput & Defense Comparison
Colby ThicknesseMetricVince Morales
3.24
Strikes / min
3.54
2.93
Strikes absorbed / min
3.91
54%
Strike defense
54%
0.67
TDs / 15 min
0.71
33%
Takedown defense
63%
1.70
Sub atts / 15 min
0.50
Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.
Recent Elo Trajectory
Colby ThicknesseVince Morales
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Colby Thicknesse
StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights2
Vince Morales
StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights11