Rafael EstevamvsJesus Aguilar

UFC Event · Saturday, February 15, 2025 · Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA

Model Prediction: Rafael Estevam wins(59.1%)

Actual result: Rafael Estevam wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258

Correct

Tale of the Tape

Rafael Estevam

Red Corner

Jesus Aguilar

Blue Corner

-620

(86%)

Vegas Odds

+460

(18%)

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'4"

175.26 cm

Reach

157.48 cm

Career Averages (per fight)

2.1

Sig. Strikes

2.5

6.0

Takedowns

1.5

0.3

Sub Attempts

1.1

Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)

RedElo RatingBlue

-15.915.9

RedLayoff (days)Blue

+273.0-273.0

RedForm ScoreBlue

+0.2-0.2

RedStriker ScoreBlue

+0.1-0.1

RedGrappler ScoreBlue

-0.10.1

Rafael Estevam

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights4

Jesus Aguilar

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach62.0"

Fights7