Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Juan Diaz won · Submission R2
Elo1513
Elo—
Malcolm WellmakervsJuan Diaz
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa · Saturday, May 16, 2026Las Vegas, USA
Style matchup
Model Prediction: Malcolm Wellmaker wins(56.5%)
Scouting Report
- Juan Diaz threatens submissions; Malcolm Wellmaker has lost 50% of fights by sub.
- Malcolm Wellmaker has 57pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Malcolm Wellmaker
Juan Diaz
—
Vegas Odds
—
1513
N/A
32
28
Switch
Orthodox
5'10"
5'8"
180.34 cm
175.26 cm
Recent Form
Malcolm Wellmaker
oldest →
KOvs Cameron Saaiman · Apr 25
KOvs Kris Moutinho · Jun 25
vs Ethyn Ewing · Nov 25
latestJuan Diaz
Output & Defense Comparison
Malcolm WellmakerMetricJuan Diaz
5.80
Strikes / min
5.82
5.39
Strikes absorbed / min
5.02
52%
Strike defense
60%
0.00
TDs / 15 min
3.01
57%
Takedown defense
0%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.
Recent Elo Trajectory
Malcolm WellmakerJuan Diaz
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Malcolm Wellmaker
StanceSwitch
Height70.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights3
Juan Diaz
StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights0