Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Louie Sutherland won · Decision R3
Elo1469
Elo1456
Tai TuivasavsLouie Sutherland
UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates · Saturday, May 2, 2026Perth, Australia
Style matchup
Model Prediction: Tai Tuivasa wins(57.1%)
Scouting Report
- Tai Tuivasa enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- Tai Tuivasa is a KO finisher (88% of wins). Louie Sutherland has lost 50% of fights by KO.
- Tai Tuivasa has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Tai Tuivasa has 58pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.
Tale of the Tape
Tai Tuivasa
Louie Sutherland
—
Vegas Odds
—
1469
1456
33
32
Southpaw
Orthodox
6'2"
6'3"
190.5 cm
193.04 cm
Recent Form
Tai Tuivasa
oldest →
KOvs Sergei Pavlovich · Dec 22
SUBvs Alexander Volkov · Sep 23
SUBvs Marcin Tybura · Mar 24
vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · Aug 24
vs Tallison Teixeira · Jan 26
latestLouie Sutherland
oldest →
SUBvs Valter Walker · Oct 25
KOvs Brando Pericic · Mar 26
latestOutput & Defense Comparison
Tai TuivasaMetricLouie Sutherland
3.37
Strikes / min
1.81
4.61
Strikes absorbed / min
2.03
42%
Strike defense
30%
0.00
TDs / 15 min
4.95
58%
Takedown defense
0%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.
Recent Elo Trajectory
Tai TuivasaLouie Sutherland
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
EVEN
— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Tai Tuivasa
StanceSouthpaw
Height74.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights17
Louie Sutherland
StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights2