Flyweight
3 Rounds
Jose Ochoa won · Decision R3
Elo1486
Elo1495
Clayton CarpentervsJose Ochoa
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · Saturday, May 9, 2026Newark, USA
Style matchup
Model Prediction: Clayton Carpenter wins(57.3%)
Scouting Report
- Jose Ochoa has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Clayton Carpenter
Jose Ochoa
—
Vegas Odds
—
1486
1495
30
25
Orthodox
Southpaw
5'6"
5'7"
167.64 cm
170.18 cm
Recent Form
Clayton Carpenter
oldest →
SUBvs Juancamilo Ronderos · Feb 23
SUBvs Lucas Rocha · Oct 24
vs Tagir Ulanbekov · Jan 25
SUBvs Jafel Filho · Oct 25
latestJose Ochoa
oldest →
vs Lone'er Kavanagh · Nov 24
KOvs Cody Durden · Jun 25
vs Asu Almabayev · Jul 25
latestOutput & Defense Comparison
Clayton CarpenterMetricJose Ochoa
3.88
Strikes / min
5.16
4.47
Strikes absorbed / min
2.99
49%
Strike defense
58%
1.75
TDs / 15 min
0.30
50%
Takedown defense
65%
1.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.90
Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.
Recent Elo Trajectory
Clayton CarpenterJose Ochoa
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Clayton Carpenter
StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach66.0"
Fights5
Jose Ochoa
StanceSouthpaw
Height67.0"
Reach67.0"
Fights4