Fernando PadillavsKyle Nelson

UFC Event · Saturday, September 16, 2023 · Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA

Model Prediction: Fernando Padilla wins(56.2%)

Actual result: Kyle Nelson wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258

Incorrect

Tale of the Tape

Fernando Padilla

Red Corner

Kyle Nelson

Blue Corner

-258

(72%)

Vegas Odds

+210

(32%)

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

6'1"

Height

5'11"

193.04 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Career Averages (per fight)

6.5

Sig. Strikes

3.6

0.0

Takedowns

1.1

0.8

Sub Attempts

0.6

Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)

RedElo RatingBlue

+45.4-45.4

RedLayoff (days)Blue

+42.0-42.0

RedForm ScoreBlue

+0.7-0.7

RedStriker ScoreBlue

+0.1-0.1

RedGrappler ScoreBlue

-0.20.2

Fernando Padilla

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights4

Kyle Nelson

StanceSwitch

Height71.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights11