Featherweight
3 Rounds
Spike Carlyle won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Saturday, February 29, 2020·Norfolk, Virginia, USA, USA
Style matchupAalon Cruz: Pressure fightervsSpike Carlyle: Wrestler
The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.
Model Prediction: Aalon Cruz wins(51.1%)
Actual result: Spike Carlyle wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Spike Carlyle is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Aalon Cruz has lost 100% of fights by KO.
- Aalon Cruz has 28pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Spike Carlyle has 57pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Aalon Cruz has a 18cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Aalon Cruz
Red Corner
VS
Spike Carlyle
Blue Corner
-190
(66%)
Vegas Odds
+165
(38%)
36
Age
33
Switch
Stance
Switch
6'0"
Height
5'8"
198.12 cm
Reach
180.34 cm
Recent Form
Last 2 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Aalon Cruz
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Uros Medic · Mar 21Spike CarlyleL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Billy Quarantillo · May 20L
vs Bill Algeo · Nov 20Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Aalon CruzMetricSpike Carlyle
7.58
Strikes / min
2.55
8.88
Strikes absorbed / min
3.85
58%
Strike defense
30%
0.00
TDs / 15 min
3.34
0%
Takedown defense
57%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.50
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.30evenly matched on net striking-1.30
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Aalon CruzSpike Carlyle
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Aalon Cruz(2 fights)Spike Carlyle(3 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
0.00.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
0.00.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
0.00.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
0.00.0
Aalon Cruz
StanceSwitch
Height72.0"
Reach78.0"
Fights2
Spike Carlyle
StanceSwitch
Height68.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights3