Lightweight
3 Rounds
Justin Salas won · S-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, July 27, 2013·Seattle, Washington, USA, USA
Style matchupAaron Riley: Well-roundedvsJustin Salas: Wrestler
Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.
Model Prediction: Justin Salas wins(55.9%)
Actual result: Justin Salas wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Aaron Riley has 60pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Aaron Riley
Red Corner
VS
Justin Salas
Blue Corner
+220
(31%)
Vegas Odds
-240
(71%)
45
Age
44
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
5'8"
Height
5'8"
175.26 cm
Reach
177.8 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Aaron Riley
oldest →latest
W
vs Joe Brammer · May 10L
KOvs Tony Ferguson · Sep 11Justin SalasL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Tim Means · Jun 12L
SUBvs Thiago Tavares · Nov 13W
KOvs Ben Wall · May 14L
KOvs Joe Proctor · Jul 14L
KOvs Jason Saggo · Mar 16Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Aaron RileyMetricJustin Salas
3.45
Strikes / min
3.42
3.78
Strikes absorbed / min
2.96
61%
Strike defense
68%
1.18
TDs / 15 min
2.43
60%
Takedown defense
0%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.33evenly matched on net striking+0.46
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Aaron RileyJustin Salas
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Aaron Riley(3 fights)Justin Salas(7 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
0.00.0
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+258.0-258.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.40.4
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.8-0.8
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
Aaron Riley
StanceSouthpaw
Height68.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights3
Justin Salas
StanceSouthpaw
Height68.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights7