Light Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Aaron Rosa won · M-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, November 12, 2011·Anaheim, California, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Aaron Rosa wins(51.9%)
Actual result: Aaron Rosa wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Aaron Rosa has 85pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Aaron Rosa has a 11cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Aaron Rosa
Red Corner
VS
Matt Lucas
Blue Corner
-120
(55%)
Vegas Odds
+110
(48%)
42
Age
52
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'4"
Height
6'1"
195.58 cm
Reach
185 cm
Recent Form
Last 2 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Aaron RosaL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Joey Beltran · Jun 11L
KOvs James Te Huna · Mar 12Matt LucasNo prior UFC fights on record.
Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Aaron RosaMetricMatt Lucas
4.03
Strikes / min
1.27
4.41
Strikes absorbed / min
3.93
45%
Strike defense
40%
0.36
TDs / 15 min
1.00
85%
Takedown defense
0%
0.40
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.38Δ 2.28 — meaningful gap-2.66
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Aaron RosaMatt Lucas
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Aaron Rosa(3 fights)Matt Lucas(1 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-14.014.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-1.01.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-50.050.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-50.050.0
Aaron Rosa
StanceOrthodox
Height76.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights3
Matt Lucas
Stance—
Height73.0"
Reach—
Fights1