Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Aaron Rosa has 85pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Aaron Rosa has a 11cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 2 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Aaron RosaL2 streak
oldest →L
KOvs Joey Beltran · Jun 11L
KOvs James Te Huna · Mar 12 Matt LucasNo prior UFC fights on record.
Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Aaron RosaMetricMatt Lucas
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.38Δ 2.28 — meaningful gap-2.66
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Aaron RosaMatt Lucas
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Aaron Rosa(3 fights)Matt Lucas(1 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -1.0|Blue +1.0
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -50.0|Blue +50.0
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -50.0|Blue +50.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Aaron RosaTargetMatt Lucas
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Aaron Rosa edged it
Sig. strikes21
Takedowns0
Control0:03
9Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
2:49Control
Round 2Even round
Sig. strikes10
Takedowns0
Control0:00
4Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
2:26Control
Round 3Aaron Rosa edged it
Sig. strikes28
Takedowns0
Control0:50
6Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:35Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
