Middleweight
3 Rounds
Aaron Simpson won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, October 8, 2011·Houston, Texas, USA, USA
Style matchupAaron Simpson: WrestlervsEric Schafer: Submission grappler
Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.
Model Prediction: Aaron Simpson wins(59.8%)
Actual result: Aaron Simpson wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Aaron Simpson has 33pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Aaron Simpson
Red Corner
VS
Eric Schafer
Blue Corner
-400
(80%)
Vegas Odds
+355
(22%)
51
Age
48
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
6'3"
185.42 cm
Reach
193.04 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Aaron Simpson
oldest →latest
W
vs Mario Miranda · Mar 11W
vs Brad Tavares · Jul 11L
vs Ronny Markes · Feb 12W
vs Kenny Robertson · Jul 12L
KOvs Mike Pierce · Oct 12Eric SchaferL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Jason Brilz · Mar 10L
KOvs Jorge Rivera · Jan 12Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Aaron SimpsonMetricEric Schafer
3.60
Strikes / min
1.89
2.53
Strikes absorbed / min
3.38
56%
Strike defense
56%
3.78
TDs / 15 min
1.81
83%
Takedown defense
50%
0.50
Sub atts / 15 min
1.80
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.07Δ 2.56 — meaningful gap-1.49
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Aaron SimpsonEric Schafer
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Aaron Simpson(8 fights)Eric Schafer(3 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+20.7-20.7
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-468.0468.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+1.3-1.3
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.9-0.9
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
Aaron Simpson
StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights8
Eric Schafer
StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights3