Light Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Ivan Erslan won · Decision R3
Elo1501
Elo1458
Tuco TokkosvsIvan Erslan
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa · Saturday, May 16, 2026Las Vegas, USA
Model Prediction: Tuco Tokkos wins(58.5%)
Scouting Report
- Ivan Erslan enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Tuco Tokkos threatens submissions; Ivan Erslan has lost 33% of fights by sub.
- Ivan Erslan has 28pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Tuco Tokkos has a 10cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Tuco Tokkos
Ivan Erslan
—
Vegas Odds
—
1501
1458
36
34
Orthodox
Orthodox
6'4"
6'2"
193.04 cm
182.88 cm
Recent Form
Tuco Tokkos
oldest →
SUBvs Oumar Sy · May 24
vs Navajo Stirling · Dec 24
SUBvs Junior Tafa · Jul 25
latestIvan Erslan
oldest →
vs Ion Cutelaba · Sep 24
vs Navajo Stirling · May 25
SUBvs Jimmy Crute · Sep 25
latestOutput & Defense Comparison
Tuco TokkosMetricIvan Erslan
2.12
Strikes / min
2.55
4.27
Strikes absorbed / min
5.01
46%
Strike defense
53%
4.21
TDs / 15 min
0.45
33%
Takedown defense
61%
0.50
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.
Recent Elo Trajectory
Tuco TokkosIvan Erslan
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
EVEN
— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Tuco Tokkos
StanceOrthodox
Height76.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights3
Ivan Erslan
StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights3