Light Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Mike Rodriguez won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Saturday, December 15, 2018·Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA, USA
Style matchupAdam Milstead: StrikervsMike Rodriguez: Pressure fighter
The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.
Model Prediction: Mike Rodriguez wins(57.8%)
Actual result: Mike Rodriguez wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Mike Rodriguez enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Mike Rodriguez is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Adam Milstead has lost 50% of fights by KO.
- Adam Milstead has 27pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Mike Rodriguez (53.5%).
- Mike Rodriguez has a 15cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Adam Milstead
Red Corner
VS
Mike Rodriguez
Blue Corner
-110
(52%)
Vegas Odds
-110
(52%)
38
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
6'3"
Height
6'4"
193.04 cm
Reach
208.28 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Adam Milstead
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Chris de la Rocha · May 16L
vs Jordan Johnson · Mar 18Mike RodriguezL3 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Da Un Jung · Dec 19W
KOvs Marcin Prachnio · Aug 20L
SUBvs Ed Herman · Sep 20L
SUBvs Danilo Marques · Feb 21L
vs Tafon Nchukwi · Sep 21Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Adam MilsteadMetricMike Rodriguez
3.85
Strikes / min
4.35
4.79
Strikes absorbed / min
4.24
43%
Strike defense
41%
0.00
TDs / 15 min
0.00
64%
Takedown defense
37%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.94Δ 1.05 — meaningful gap+0.11
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Adam MilsteadMike Rodriguez
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Adam Milstead(3 fights)Mike Rodriguez(7 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+14.0-14.0
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+35.0-35.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.3-0.3
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+1.2-1.2
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
0.00.0
Adam Milstead
StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights3
Mike Rodriguez
StanceSouthpaw
Height76.0"
Reach82.0"
Fights7