Middleweight
3 Rounds
AJ Dobson won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, August 12, 2023·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupAJ Dobson: Pressure fightervsTafon Nchukwi: Pressure fighter
Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.
Model Prediction: Tafon Nchukwi wins(51.9%)
Actual result: AJ Dobson wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- AJ Dobson enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Tale of the Tape
AJ Dobson
Red Corner
VS
Tafon Nchukwi
Blue Corner
+124
(45%)
Vegas Odds
-148
(60%)
34
Age
31
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'1"
Height
6'0"
193.04 cm
Reach
195.58 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
AJ DobsonL3 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Jacob Malkoun · Feb 22L
vs Armen Petrosyan · Oct 22L
KOvs Edmen Shahbazyan · Mar 24Tafon NchukwiL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Jamie Pickett · Dec 20L
vs Junyong Park · May 21W
vs Mike Rodriguez · Sep 21L
KOvs Azamat Murzakanov · Mar 22L
KOvs Carlos Ulberg · Jun 22Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
AJ DobsonMetricTafon Nchukwi
4.29
Strikes / min
5.57
5.31
Strikes absorbed / min
4.11
46%
Strike defense
54%
1.67
TDs / 15 min
0.76
65%
Takedown defense
64%
0.30
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.02Δ 2.48 — meaningful gap+1.46
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
AJ DobsonTafon Nchukwi
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
AJ Dobson(4 fights)Tafon Nchukwi(6 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-16.916.9
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-119.0119.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.50.5
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
AJ Dobson
StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights4
Tafon Nchukwi
StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights6