Welterweight
3 Rounds
AJ Fletcher won · SUB R2
UFC Event·Saturday, February 18, 2023·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Themba Gorimbo wins(50.4%)
Actual result: AJ Fletcher wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- AJ Fletcher enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- AJ Fletcher threatens submissions; Themba Gorimbo has lost 67% of fights by sub.
- Themba Gorimbo has 40pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors AJ Fletcher (52.9%).
- Themba Gorimbo has a 25cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
AJ Fletcher
Red Corner
VS
Themba Gorimbo
Blue Corner
-350
(78%)
Vegas Odds
+290
(26%)
29
Age
35
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
5'10"
Height
6'1"
170.18 cm
Reach
195.58 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
AJ FletcherL3 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Matthew Semelsberger · Mar 22L
vs Ange Loosa · Aug 22L
SUBvs Bryan Battle · Sep 23Themba GorimboL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Pete Rodriguez · Feb 24W
vs Ramiz Brahimaj · May 24W
vs Niko Price · Oct 24L
SUBvs Vicente Luque · Dec 24L
vs Jeremiah Wells · Nov 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
AJ FletcherMetricThemba Gorimbo
3.36
Strikes / min
2.70
4.61
Strikes absorbed / min
1.75
46%
Strike defense
51%
1.54
TDs / 15 min
4.52
33%
Takedown defense
73%
0.90
Sub atts / 15 min
0.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.25Δ 2.20 — meaningful gap+0.95
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
AJ FletcherThemba Gorimbo
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
AJ Fletcher(4 fights)Themba Gorimbo(7 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-35.335.3
RedForm ScoreBlue
-1.01.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-49.649.6
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-49.649.6
AJ Fletcher
StanceSwitch
Height70.0"
Reach67.0"
Fights4
Themba Gorimbo
StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights7