Lightweight
3 Rounds
Dan Hooker won · U-DEC R3
Elo1411
Elo1484
Al IaquintavsDan HookerUFC Prediction Result
UFC 243: Whittaker vs. Adesanya · Saturday, October 5, 2019Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
Official fight result
Dan Hooker won
U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00
Style matchup
Model Prediction: Dan Hooker wins(52.0%)
Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick
+$74 profit
Scouting Report
- Al Iaquinta has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Stance matchup historically favors Dan Hooker (52.9%).
- Dan Hooker has a 13cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Al Iaquinta
Dan Hooker
+115
Vegas Odds
-135
1411
1484
39
36
Orthodox
Switch
5'10"
6'0"
177.8 cm
190.5 cm
Recent Form
Al Iaquinta
oldest →
KOvs Diego Sanchez · Apr 17
vs Khabib Nurmagomedov · Apr 18
vs Kevin Lee · Dec 18
vs Donald Cerrone · May 19
KOvs Bobby Green · Nov 21
latestDan Hooker
oldest →
KOvs Claudio Puelles · Nov 22
vs Jalin Turner · Jul 23
vs Mateusz Gamrot · Aug 24
SUBvs Arman Tsarukyan · Nov 25
KOvs Benoit Saint Denis · Jan 26
latestOutput & Defense Comparison
Al IaquintaMetricDan Hooker
4.06
Strikes / min
4.82
4.53
Strikes absorbed / min
4.94
61%
Strike defense
49%
0.63
TDs / 15 min
0.68
74%
Takedown defense
77%
0.20
Sub atts / 15 min
0.60
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Al IaquintaDan Hooker
Recent Elo Trajectory
Al IaquintaDan Hooker
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
By target zone
21
23% acc · 57%
68
40% acc · 69%
7
64% acc · 19%
7
54% acc · 7%
9
75% acc · 24%
23
88% acc · 23%
By position
37
32% acc · 100%
76
42% acc · 78%
0
0
0
22
88% acc · 22%
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
0
Al Iaquinta rounds
0
even
3
Dan Hooker rounds
Fight Stats
Totals
0
1
37 / 116
98 / 207
30%
47.3%
38 / 117
104 / 213
0 / 3
0 / 1
0%
0%
0
0
0
0
0:23
2:30
Round-by-Round
| Round | Fighter | Sig Str | Total Str | TD | Sub |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dan Hooker | 38 / 63 | 44 / 69 | 0 / 1 | 0 |
| 1 | Al Iaquinta | 5 / 23 | 5 / 23 | 0 / 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Dan Hooker | 27 / 63 | 27 / 63 | 0 / 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Al Iaquinta | 15 / 39 | 16 / 40 | 0 / 2 | 0 |
| 3 | Dan Hooker | 33 / 81 | 33 / 81 | 0 / 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Al Iaquinta | 17 / 54 | 17 / 54 | 0 / 1 | 0 |
Al Iaquinta
StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights15
Dan Hooker
StanceSwitch
Height72.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights24