Middleweight
3 Rounds
Alan Belcher won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Saturday, September 17, 2011·New Orleans, Louisiana, USA, USA
Style matchupAlan Belcher: Well-roundedvsJason MacDonald: Submission grappler
Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.
Model Prediction: Alan Belcher wins(54.6%)
Actual result: Alan Belcher wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Alan Belcher is a KO finisher (67% of wins). Jason MacDonald has lost 100% of fights by KO.
- Alan Belcher has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Alan Belcher has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Jason MacDonald has a 13cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Alan Belcher
Red Corner
VS
Jason MacDonald
Blue Corner
-290
(74%)
Vegas Odds
+260
(28%)
42
Age
50
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'2"
Height
6'3"
190.5 cm
Reach
203.2 cm
Recent Form
Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Alan BelcherL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Patrick Cote · May 10W
KOvs Rousimar Palhares · May 12L
vs Yushin Okami · Dec 12L
vs Michael Bisping · Apr 13Jason MacDonald
oldest →latest
L
KOvs John Salter · May 10W
SUBvs Ryan Jensen · Apr 11L
KOvs Tom Lawlor · May 12Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Alan BelcherMetricJason MacDonald
2.70
Strikes / min
1.55
3.10
Strikes absorbed / min
2.70
59%
Strike defense
46%
0.44
TDs / 15 min
1.43
55%
Takedown defense
35%
0.90
Sub atts / 15 min
2.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.40evenly matched on net striking-1.15
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Alan BelcherJason MacDonald
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Alan Belcher(5 fights)Jason MacDonald(4 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+17.5-17.5
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+357.0-357.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.5-0.5
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.8-0.8
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.20.2
Alan Belcher
StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights5
Jason MacDonald
StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach80.0"
Fights4