Welterweight
3 Rounds
Alan Jouban won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Wednesday, July 15, 2015·San Diego, California, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Alan Jouban wins(70.5%)
Actual result: Alan Jouban wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Stance matchup historically favors Alan Jouban (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Alan Jouban
Red Corner
VS
Matt Dwyer
Blue Corner
-500
(83%)
Vegas Odds
+400
(20%)
44
Age
36
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
6'4"
185.42 cm
Reach
193.04 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Alan Jouban
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Gunnar Nelson · Mar 17L
KOvs Niko Price · Aug 17W
KOvs Ben Saunders · Feb 18L
vs Dwight Grant · Apr 19W
vs Jared Gooden · Nov 20Matt Dwyer
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Albert Tumenov · Oct 14W
vs William Patolino · Feb 15L
vs Randy Brown · Jan 16Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Alan JoubanMetricMatt Dwyer
5.67
Strikes / min
2.57
3.77
Strikes absorbed / min
3.24
60%
Strike defense
54%
0.51
TDs / 15 min
0.44
58%
Takedown defense
60%
0.30
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.90Δ 2.57 — meaningful gap-0.67
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Alan JoubanMatt Dwyer
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Alan Jouban(10 fights)Matt Dwyer(4 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+19.0-19.0
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-6.06.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+1.8-1.8
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
0.00.0
Alan Jouban
StanceSouthpaw
Height72.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights13
Matt Dwyer
StanceOrthodox
Height76.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights4