Lightweight
3 Rounds
Alan Patrick won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, February 3, 2018·Belem, Para, Brazil, Brazil
Model Prediction: Alan Patrick wins(67.2%)
Actual result: Alan Patrick wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Alan Patrick enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Damir Hadzovic has 16pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Stance matchup historically favors Alan Patrick (53.5%).
- Alan Patrick has a 10cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Alan Patrick
Red Corner
VS
Damir Hadzovic
Blue Corner
-240
(71%)
Vegas Odds
+200
(33%)
42
Age
39
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'11"
Height
5'9"
187.96 cm
Reach
177.8 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Alan PatrickL3 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Damien Brown · Mar 16W
vs Stevie Ray · Sep 16L
KOvs Scott Holtzman · Oct 18L
vs Bobby Green · Sep 20L
KOvs Michael Johnson · May 22Damir HadzovicL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Christos Giagos · Jun 19L
SUBvs Renato Moicano · Mar 20W
vs Yancy Medeiros · Jun 21L
vs Marc Diakiese · Jul 22L
KOvs Terrance McKinney · Feb 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Alan PatrickMetricDamir Hadzovic
1.82
Strikes / min
3.34
2.95
Strikes absorbed / min
3.74
43%
Strike defense
59%
3.01
TDs / 15 min
0.91
43%
Takedown defense
34%
0.30
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.13evenly matched on net striking-0.40
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Alan PatrickDamir Hadzovic
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Alan Patrick(9 fights)Damir Hadzovic(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+54.9-54.9
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+246.0-246.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.8-0.8
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
Alan Patrick
StanceSouthpaw
Height71.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights9
Damir Hadzovic
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights10