Lightweight
3 Rounds
Alan Patrick won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, September 24, 2016·Brasilia, Distrito Federal, Brazil, Brazil
Style matchupAlan Patrick: WrestlervsStevie Ray: Well-rounded
Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.
Model Prediction: Alan Patrick wins(58.5%)
Actual result: Alan Patrick wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Alan Patrick enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Stevie Ray has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Alan Patrick has a 10cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Alan Patrick
Red Corner
VS
Stevie Ray
Blue Corner
+145
(41%)
Vegas Odds
-165
(62%)
42
Age
36
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
5'11"
Height
5'10"
187.96 cm
Reach
177.8 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Alan PatrickL3 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Damien Brown · Mar 16W
vs Damir Hadzovic · Feb 18L
KOvs Scott Holtzman · Oct 18L
vs Bobby Green · Sep 20L
KOvs Michael Johnson · May 22Stevie Ray
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Paul Felder · Jul 17L
vs Kajan Johnson · Mar 18W
vs Jessin Ayari · Oct 18L
KOvs Leonardo Santos · Jun 19W
vs Michael Johnson · Oct 19Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Alan PatrickMetricStevie Ray
1.82
Strikes / min
3.73
2.95
Strikes absorbed / min
2.93
43%
Strike defense
54%
3.01
TDs / 15 min
0.75
43%
Takedown defense
55%
0.30
Sub atts / 15 min
0.60
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.13Δ 1.93 — meaningful gap+0.80
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Alan PatrickStevie Ray
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Alan Patrick(9 fights)Stevie Ray(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-13.613.6
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-147.0147.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.50.5
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.20.2
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.00.0
Alan Patrick
StanceSouthpaw
Height71.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights9
Stevie Ray
StanceSouthpaw
Height70.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights11