Flyweight
3 Rounds
Alden Coria won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, February 21, 2026·Houston, Texas, USA, USA
Style matchupAlden Coria: Elusive strikervsLuis Gurule: Pressure fighter
The elusive striker must use the cage and footwork. The pressure fighter forces the war.
Model Prediction: Alden Coria wins(77.2%)
Actual result: Alden Coria wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Alden Coria has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Tale of the Tape
Alden Coria
Red Corner
VS
Luis Gurule
Blue Corner
-390
(80%)
Vegas Odds
+310
(24%)
28
Age
32
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'8"
Height
5'5"
170.18 cm
Reach
162.56 cm
Recent Form
Last 2 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Alden Coria
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Alessandro Costa · Sep 25Luis GuruleL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Ode Osbourne · Apr 25L
vs Jesus Aguilar · Sep 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Alden CoriaMetricLuis Gurule
4.69
Strikes / min
4.47
2.40
Strikes absorbed / min
4.74
69%
Strike defense
59%
1.75
TDs / 15 min
0.58
71%
Takedown defense
58%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+2.29Δ 2.56 — meaningful gap-0.27
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Alden CoriaLuis Gurule
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Alden Coria(2 fights)Luis Gurule(3 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+48.2-48.2
RedLayoff (days)Blue
0.00.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+2.0-2.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.0-0.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
Alden Coria
StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach67.0"
Fights2
Luis Gurule
StanceOrthodox
Height65.0"
Reach64.0"
Fights3