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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Aleksandar Rakic won · Decision R3

Elo1490

Elo1480

Aleksandar RakicvsMarcin TyburaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Medic vs. Rodriguez · Saturday, August 1, 2026Belgrade, Serbia

Official fight result

Aleksandar Rakic won

Decision · Round 3 · 5:00

Engine 7.0 was correct

Pre-fight pick: Aleksandar Rakic

If $100 had been placed on our pre-fight pick

Aleksandar Rakic at -350 American odds · hypothetical only

+$29 profit

$129 total returned

Style matchupAleksandar Rakic: Well-roundedvsMarcin Tybura: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Aleksandar Rakic enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Aleksandar Rakic has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Aleksandar Rakic

Red Corner

Marcin Tybura

Blue Corner

-350

(78%)

Vegas Odds

+273

(27%)

1490

Elo

1480

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'4"

Height

6'3"

198.12 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Aleksandar RakicL4 streak

oldest →

vs Thiago Santos · Mar 21

KOvs Jan Blachowicz · May 22

KOvs Jiri Prochazka · Apr 24

vs Magomed Ankalaev · Oct 24

KOvs Azamat Murzakanov · Oct 25

latest

Marcin TyburaL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Serghei Spivac · Aug 24

KOvs Jhonata Diniz · Nov 24

vs Mick Parkin · Mar 25

KOvs Ante Delija · Sep 25

vs Tyrell Fortune · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Aleksandar RakicMetricMarcin Tybura

4.13

Strikes / min

3.56

2.86

Strikes absorbed / min

3.26

51%

Strike defense

55%

0.64

TDs / 15 min

1.30

85%

Takedown defense

70%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.27evenly matched on net striking+0.30

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Aleksandar Rakic(10 fights)Marcin Tybura(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +10.4|Blue -10.4

Recent Form

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +154.0|Blue -154.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Aleksandar RakicTargetMarcin Tybura

By target zone

33% acc · 39%

Head

19% acc · 55%

79% acc · 38%

Body

30% acc · 24%

89% acc · 23%

Leg

88% acc · 21%

By position

50% acc · 93%

Distance

24% acc · 88%

100% acc · 7%

Clinch

67% acc · 12%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Aleksandar Rakic rounds

even

Marcin Tybura rounds

Round 1Aleksandar Rakic edged it

Sig. strikes36

Takedowns0

Control0:00

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Aleksandar Rakic edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:00

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Aleksandar Rakic edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control3:11

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

71 / 136

Sig Strikes

33 / 129

50.7%

Sig Str %

28%

83 / 149

Total Strikes

37 / 133

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 2

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

3:11

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Marcin Tybura	10 / 56	10 / 56	0 / 1
1	Aleksandar Rakic	36 / 60	36 / 60	0 / 0
2	Marcin Tybura	14 / 50	14 / 50	0 / 0
2	Aleksandar Rakic	18 / 43	18 / 44	0 / 0
3	Marcin Tybura	9 / 23	13 / 27	0 / 1
3	Aleksandar Rakic	17 / 33	29 / 45	0 / 0

The Pick

Vegas favorite

Aleksandar Rakic

Odds

-350

Market-implied probability

Aleksandar Rakic 74%

Model pick shown for research — not a betting edge.

$100 bet returns

Aleksandar Rakic (model pick · research)$129

Marcin Tybura$373

74% market-implied · model 53% (research) · vufc_v7_0_20260718_090638

🔒 Pick locked Jul 18, 2026, 9:29 AM UTC · never rewritten

Aleksandar Rakic

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights12

Marcin Tybura

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights25