Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Aleksei Oleinik won · S-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, May 9, 2020·Jacksonville, Florida, USA, USA
Style matchupAleksei Oleinik: Submission grapplervsFabricio Werdum: Submission grappler
Submission battle — patience and grip-fighting decide it on the mat.
Model Prediction: Aleksei Oleinik wins(64.2%)
Actual result: Aleksei Oleinik wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Fabricio Werdum has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Tale of the Tape
Aleksei Oleinik
Red Corner
VS
Fabricio Werdum
Blue Corner
+270
(27%)
Vegas Odds
-330
(77%)
48
Age
48
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'2"
Height
6'4"
203.2 cm
Reach
195.58 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Aleksei Oleinik
oldest →latest
L
vs Derrick Lewis · Aug 20L
KOvs Chris Daukaus · Feb 21L
vs Serghei Spivac · Jun 21W
SUBvs Jared Vanderaa · Apr 22L
vs Ilir Latifi · Oct 22Fabricio Werdum
oldest →latest
L
vs Alistair Overeem · Jul 17W
SUBvs Walt Harris · Oct 17W
vs Marcin Tybura · Nov 17L
KOvs Alexander Volkov · Mar 18W
SUBvs Alexander Gustafsson · Jul 20Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Aleksei OleinikMetricFabricio Werdum
3.29
Strikes / min
3.59
3.80
Strikes absorbed / min
2.64
44%
Strike defense
55%
1.82
TDs / 15 min
1.75
37%
Takedown defense
31%
1.90
Sub atts / 15 min
1.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.51Δ 1.46 — meaningful gap+0.95
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Aleksei OleinikFabricio Werdum
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Aleksei Oleinik(10 fights)Fabricio Werdum(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-37.537.5
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-672.0672.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-1.91.9
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.3-0.3
Aleksei Oleinik
StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach80.0"
Fights17
Fabricio Werdum
StanceOrthodox
Height76.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights14