Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Aleksei Oleinik won · SUB R1
UFC Event·Saturday, April 9, 2022·Jacksonville, Florida, USA, USA
Style matchupAleksei Oleinik: Submission grapplervsJared Vanderaa: Pressure fighter
The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.
Model Prediction: Aleksei Oleinik wins(58.1%)
Actual result: Aleksei Oleinik wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Aleksei Oleinik enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Jared Vanderaa enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Aleksei Oleinik has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Aleksei Oleinik
Red Corner
VS
Jared Vanderaa
Blue Corner
+130
(43%)
Vegas Odds
-150
(60%)
48
Age
34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'2"
Height
6'4"
203.2 cm
Reach
203.2 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Aleksei OleinikL4 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Fabricio Werdum · May 20L
vs Derrick Lewis · Aug 20L
KOvs Chris Daukaus · Feb 21L
vs Serghei Spivac · Jun 21L
vs Ilir Latifi · Oct 22Jared VanderaaL4 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Justin Tafa · May 21L
KOvs Alexandr Romanov · Oct 21L
vs Andrei Arlovski · Feb 22L
KOvs Chase Sherman · Jul 22L
vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta · Oct 22Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Aleksei OleinikMetricJared Vanderaa
3.29
Strikes / min
4.96
3.80
Strikes absorbed / min
5.67
44%
Strike defense
45%
1.82
TDs / 15 min
0.18
37%
Takedown defense
20%
1.90
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.51evenly matched on net striking-0.71
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Aleksei OleinikJared Vanderaa
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Aleksei Oleinik(10 fights)Jared Vanderaa(7 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+35.1-35.1
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+238.0-238.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.3-0.3
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.3-0.3
Aleksei Oleinik
StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach80.0"
Fights17
Jared Vanderaa
StanceOrthodox
Height76.0"
Reach80.0"
Fights7