Flyweight
3 Rounds
Alden Coria won · KO/TKO R3
UFC Event·Saturday, September 13, 2025·San Antonio, Texas, USA, USA
Style matchupAlessandro Costa: Well-roundedvsAlden Coria: Elusive striker
The well-rounded fighter has more dimensions. The elusive striker needs to win the striking exchanges clearly.
Model Prediction: Alden Coria wins(53.0%)
Actual result: Alden Coria wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Alden Coria is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Alessandro Costa has lost 67% of fights by KO.
- Alden Coria has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Alessandro Costa has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Alessandro Costa
Red Corner
VS
Alden Coria
Blue Corner
-340
(77%)
Vegas Odds
+275
(27%)
30
Age
28
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'4"
Height
5'8"
170.18 cm
Reach
170.18 cm
Recent Form
Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Alessandro Costa
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Amir Albazi · Dec 22W
KOvs Jimmy Flick · Jun 23L
vs Steve Erceg · Nov 23W
KOvs Kevin Borjas · May 24Alden Coria
oldest →latest
W
vs Luis Gurule · Feb 26Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Alessandro CostaMetricAlden Coria
3.73
Strikes / min
4.69
3.72
Strikes absorbed / min
2.40
56%
Strike defense
69%
0.79
TDs / 15 min
1.75
86%
Takedown defense
71%
0.40
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.01Δ 2.28 — meaningful gap+2.29
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Alessandro CostaAlden Coria
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Alessandro Costa(5 fights)Alden Coria(2 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+3.2-3.2
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-49.649.6
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-49.949.9
Alessandro Costa
StanceOrthodox
Height64.0"
Reach67.0"
Fights6
Alden Coria
StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach67.0"
Fights2