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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Makhmud Muradov won · U-DEC R3

Elo1432

Elo1498

Alessio Di ChiricovsMakhmud MuradovUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Cannonier · Saturday, September 28, 2019Copenhagen, Denmark

Official fight result

Makhmud Muradov won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupAlessio Di Chirico: Well-roundedvsMakhmud Muradov: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Makhmud Muradov wins(60.3%)

Actual result: Makhmud Muradov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Makhmud Muradov at -165 American odds

+$61 profit

$161 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Alessio Di Chirico

Red Corner

Makhmud Muradov

Blue Corner

+145

(41%)

Vegas Odds

-165

(62%)

1432

Elo

1498

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'2"

187.96 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Alessio Di ChiricoL2 streak

oldest →

vs Kevin Holland · Jun 19

vs Zak Cummings · Aug 20

KOvs Joaquin Buckley · Jan 21

KOvs Abdul Razak Alhassan · Aug 21

KOvs Roman Kopylov · Sep 22

latest

Makhmud Muradov

oldest →

KOvs Trevor Smith · Dec 19

KOvs Andrew Sanchez · Jan 21

SUBvs Gerald Meerschaert · Aug 21

vs Caio Borralho · Oct 22

vs Bryan Barberena · Jul 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Alessio Di ChiricoMetricMakhmud Muradov

3.32

Strikes / min

4.21

3.44

Strikes absorbed / min

2.57

61%

Strike defense

61%

1.46

TDs / 15 min

3.03

83%

Takedown defense

77%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.12Δ 1.76 — meaningful gap+1.64

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Alessio Di ChiricoMakhmud Muradov

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Alessio Di Chirico(10 fights)Makhmud Muradov(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -66.3|Blue +66.3

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red -47.8|Blue +47.8

Grappler Score

Red -49.7|Blue +49.7

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Alessio Di ChiricoTargetMakhmud Muradov

By target zone

31% acc · 86%

Head

24% acc · 59%

0% acc

Body

59% acc · 35%

56% acc · 14%

Leg

75% acc · 6%

By position

29% acc · 83%

Distance

31% acc · 91%

67% acc · 17%

Clinch

56% acc · 9%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Alessio Di Chirico rounds

even

Makhmud Muradov rounds

Round 1Makhmud Muradov edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:00

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:10Control

Round 2Makhmud Muradov edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:00

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Alessio Di Chirico edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control0:43

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:28Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

36 / 113

Sig Strikes

54 / 169

28.3%

Sig Str %

31%

37 / 114

Total Strikes

56 / 171

0 / 2

TDs

0 / 3

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:43

Ctrl Time

0:38

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Makhmud Muradov	12 / 43	12 / 43	0 / 2
1	Alessio Di Chirico	7 / 32	7 / 32	0 / 1
2	Makhmud Muradov	23 / 60	23 / 60	0 / 0
2	Alessio Di Chirico	6 / 29	6 / 29	0 / 0
3	Makhmud Muradov	19 / 66	21 / 68	0 / 1
3	Alessio Di Chirico	23 / 52	24 / 53	0 / 1

Alessio Di Chirico

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights11

Makhmud Muradov

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights6