Featherweight
3 Rounds
Alex Caceres won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, June 3, 2023·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupAlex Caceres: Well-roundedvsDaniel Pineda: Submission grappler
Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.
Model Prediction: Alex Caceres wins(61.5%)
Actual result: Alex Caceres wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Daniel Pineda threatens submissions; Alex Caceres has lost 38% of fights by sub.
- Alex Caceres has 17pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Stance matchup historically favors Alex Caceres (53.5%).
- Alex Caceres has a 10cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Alex Caceres
Red Corner
VS
Daniel Pineda
Blue Corner
-180
(64%)
Vegas Odds
+152
(40%)
37
Age
40
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'10"
Height
5'7"
185.42 cm
Reach
175.26 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Alex CaceresL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs SeungWoo Choi · Oct 21L
vs Sodiq Yusuff · Mar 22W
KOvs Julian Erosa · Dec 22L
vs Giga Chikadze · Aug 23L
vs Sean Woodson · May 24Daniel PinedaL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Herbert Burns · Aug 20L
KOvs Cub Swanson · Dec 20W
SUBvs Tucker Lutz · Mar 23L
vs Nathaniel Wood · Jul 24L
vs Darren Elkins · Oct 24Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Alex CaceresMetricDaniel Pineda
4.21
Strikes / min
2.85
3.09
Strikes absorbed / min
3.26
62%
Strike defense
45%
0.54
TDs / 15 min
1.42
64%
Takedown defense
54%
0.70
Sub atts / 15 min
1.50
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.12Δ 1.53 — meaningful gap-0.41
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Alex CaceresDaniel Pineda
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Alex Caceres(10 fights)Daniel Pineda(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+63.8-63.8
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+98.0-98.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.30.3
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+1.0-1.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
Alex Caceres
StanceSouthpaw
Height70.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights29
Daniel Pineda
StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights13