Featherweight
3 Rounds
Jason Knight won · SUB R2
UFC Event·Saturday, January 28, 2017·Denver, Colorado, USA, USA
Style matchupAlex Caceres: Well-roundedvsJason Knight: Submission grappler
Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.
Model Prediction: Alex Caceres wins(69.9%)
Actual result: Jason Knight wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Jason Knight enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Alex Caceres has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Alex Caceres has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Alex Caceres (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Alex Caceres
Red Corner
VS
Jason Knight
Blue Corner
+115
(47%)
Vegas Odds
-135
(57%)
37
Age
33
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'10"
Height
5'10"
185.42 cm
Reach
180.34 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Alex CaceresL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Sodiq Yusuff · Mar 22W
KOvs Julian Erosa · Dec 22W
vs Daniel Pineda · Jun 23L
vs Giga Chikadze · Aug 23L
vs Sean Woodson · May 24Jason KnightL4 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Chas Skelly · May 17L
KOvs Ricardo Lamas · Jul 17L
vs Gabriel Benitez · Dec 17L
vs Makwan Amirkhani · May 18L
vs Jordan Rinaldi · Nov 18Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Alex CaceresMetricJason Knight
4.21
Strikes / min
2.95
3.09
Strikes absorbed / min
3.02
62%
Strike defense
51%
0.54
TDs / 15 min
1.31
64%
Takedown defense
47%
0.70
Sub atts / 15 min
1.70
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.12Δ 1.19 — meaningful gap-0.07
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Alex CaceresJason Knight
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Alex Caceres(10 fights)Jason Knight(9 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-12.112.1
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+112.0-112.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.60.6
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.4-0.4
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
Alex Caceres
StanceSouthpaw
Height70.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights29
Jason Knight
StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights9