Featherweight
3 Rounds
Kron Gracie won · SUB R1
UFC Event·Sunday, February 17, 2019·Phoenix, Arizona, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Alex Caceres wins(60.6%)
Actual result: Kron Gracie wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Kron Gracie enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Kron Gracie threatens submissions; Alex Caceres has lost 38% of fights by sub.
- Alex Caceres has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Alex Caceres has 64pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Alex Caceres
Red Corner
VS
Kron Gracie
Blue Corner
+245
(29%)
Vegas Odds
-290
(74%)
37
Age
37
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
5'10"
Height
5'9"
185.42 cm
Reach
177.8 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Alex CaceresL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Sodiq Yusuff · Mar 22W
KOvs Julian Erosa · Dec 22W
vs Daniel Pineda · Jun 23L
vs Giga Chikadze · Aug 23L
vs Sean Woodson · May 24Kron GracieL3 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Cub Swanson · Oct 19L
vs Charles Jourdain · May 23L
KOvs Bryce Mitchell · Dec 24Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Alex CaceresMetricKron Gracie
4.21
Strikes / min
2.95
3.09
Strikes absorbed / min
5.73
62%
Strike defense
51%
0.54
TDs / 15 min
0.35
64%
Takedown defense
0%
0.70
Sub atts / 15 min
0.70
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.12Δ 3.90 — meaningful gap-2.78
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Alex CaceresKron Gracie
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Alex Caceres(10 fights)Kron Gracie(4 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+7.2-7.2
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-47.647.6
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-49.749.7
Alex Caceres
StanceSouthpaw
Height70.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights29
Kron Gracie
StanceSouthpaw
Height69.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights4