Featherweight
3 Rounds
Mackens Semerzier won · SUB R1
UFC Event·Saturday, March 26, 2011·Seattle, Washington, USA, USA
Style matchupAlex Caceres: Well-roundedvsMackens Semerzier: Wrestler
Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.
Model Prediction: Alex Caceres wins(53.8%)
Actual result: Mackens Semerzier wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Mackens Semerzier threatens submissions; Alex Caceres has lost 38% of fights by sub.
- Alex Caceres has 16pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Stance matchup historically favors Alex Caceres (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Alex Caceres
Red Corner
VS
Mackens Semerzier
Blue Corner
+190
(34%)
Vegas Odds
-210
(68%)
37
Age
45
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'10"
Height
5'9"
185.42 cm
Reach
182.88 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Alex CaceresL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Sodiq Yusuff · Mar 22W
KOvs Julian Erosa · Dec 22W
vs Daniel Pineda · Jun 23L
vs Giga Chikadze · Aug 23L
vs Sean Woodson · May 24Mackens Semerzier
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Daniel Pineda · Mar 12Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Alex CaceresMetricMackens Semerzier
4.21
Strikes / min
2.91
3.09
Strikes absorbed / min
3.48
62%
Strike defense
46%
0.54
TDs / 15 min
2.14
64%
Takedown defense
50%
0.70
Sub atts / 15 min
2.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.12Δ 1.69 — meaningful gap-0.57
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Alex Caceres(10 fights)Mackens Semerzier(2 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
0.00.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
0.00.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
0.00.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
0.00.0
Alex Caceres
StanceSouthpaw
Height70.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights29
Mackens Semerzier
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights2