Lightweight
3 Rounds
Damir Ismagulov won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, December 1, 2018·Adelaide, South Australia, Australia, Australia
Model Prediction: Damir Ismagulov wins(62.0%)
Actual result: Damir Ismagulov wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Damir Ismagulov has 23pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Damir Ismagulov has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Alex Gorgees (52.9%).
Tale of the Tape
Alex Gorgees
Red Corner
VS
Damir Ismagulov
Blue Corner
+425
(19%)
Vegas Odds
-550
(85%)
30
Age
35
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
6'2"
Height
5'10"
187.96 cm
Reach
187.96 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Alex GorgeesNo prior UFC fights on record.
Damir IsmagulovL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Thiago Moises · Aug 19W
vs Rafael Alves · May 21W
vs Guram Kutateladze · Jun 22L
vs Arman Tsarukyan · Dec 22L
vs Grant Dawson · Jul 23Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Alex GorgeesMetricDamir Ismagulov
0.67
Strikes / min
3.36
2.27
Strikes absorbed / min
2.44
38%
Strike defense
61%
0.00
TDs / 15 min
1.00
54%
Takedown defense
70%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.60Δ 2.52 — meaningful gap+0.92
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Alex Gorgees(1 fights)Damir Ismagulov(7 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
0.00.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
0.00.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
0.00.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
0.00.0
Alex Gorgees
StanceSwitch
Height74.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights1
Damir Ismagulov
StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights7