Welterweight
3 Rounds
Carlos Leal won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Saturday, March 8, 2025·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupAlex Morono: Pressure fightervsCarlos Leal: Pressure fighter
Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.
Model Prediction: Carlos Leal wins(66.7%)
Actual result: Carlos Leal wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Alex Morono enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Carlos Leal has 43pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Alex Morono
Red Corner
VS
Carlos Leal
Blue Corner
+530
(16%)
Vegas Odds
-750
(88%)
35
Age
32
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'11"
Height
5'11"
182.88 cm
Reach
187.96 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Alex MoronoL3 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Joaquin Buckley · Oct 23W
vs Court McGee · Apr 24L
vs Niko Price · Jun 24L
vs Daniel Rodriguez · Oct 24L
vs Daniil Donchenko · Feb 26Carlos Leal
oldest →latest
L
vs Rinat Fakhretdinov · Oct 24L
KOvs Muslim Salikhov · Jul 25W
vs Chidi Njokuani · Feb 26Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Alex MoronoMetricCarlos Leal
4.90
Strikes / min
8.75
4.88
Strikes absorbed / min
7.78
55%
Strike defense
48%
0.32
TDs / 15 min
0.43
47%
Takedown defense
90%
0.30
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.02evenly matched on net striking+0.97
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Alex MoronoCarlos Leal
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Alex Morono(10 fights)Carlos Leal(4 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+67.5-67.5
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+14.0-14.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.5-0.5
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.6-0.6
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
0.00.0
Alex Morono
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights23
Carlos Leal
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights4