Welterweight
3 Rounds
Daniil Donchenko won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, February 7, 2026·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupAlex Morono: Pressure fightervsDaniil Donchenko: Elusive striker
The elusive striker must use the cage and footwork. The pressure fighter forces the war.
Model Prediction: Daniil Donchenko wins(69.6%)
Actual result: Daniil Donchenko wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Alex Morono enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Daniil Donchenko has 17pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Daniil Donchenko has 28pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Alex Morono
Red Corner
VS
Daniil Donchenko
Blue Corner
+610
(14%)
Vegas Odds
-900
(90%)
35
Age
24
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'11"
Height
5'11"
182.88 cm
Reach
180.34 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Alex MoronoL3 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Joaquin Buckley · Oct 23W
vs Court McGee · Apr 24L
vs Niko Price · Jun 24L
vs Daniel Rodriguez · Oct 24L
KOvs Carlos Leal · Mar 25Daniil Donchenko
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Rodrigo Sezinando · Sep 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Alex MoronoMetricDaniil Donchenko
4.90
Strikes / min
7.15
4.88
Strikes absorbed / min
2.57
55%
Strike defense
72%
0.32
TDs / 15 min
0.77
47%
Takedown defense
75%
0.30
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.02Δ 4.56 — meaningful gap+4.58
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Alex MoronoDaniil Donchenko
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Alex Morono(10 fights)Daniil Donchenko(2 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+12.4-12.4
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+189.0-189.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-1.71.7
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.5-0.5
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
0.00.0
Alex Morono
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights23
Daniil Donchenko
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights2