Welterweight
3 Rounds
Gunnar Nelson won · SUB R2
UFC Event·Saturday, December 8, 2018·Toronto, Ontario, Canada, Canada
Style matchupAlex Oliveira: WrestlervsGunnar Nelson: Wrestler
Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.
Model Prediction: Gunnar Nelson wins(56.6%)
Actual result: Gunnar Nelson wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Alex Oliveira enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Gunnar Nelson threatens submissions; Alex Oliveira has lost 50% of fights by sub.
- Stance matchup historically favors Gunnar Nelson (52.9%).
- Alex Oliveira has a 10cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Alex Oliveira
Red Corner
VS
Gunnar Nelson
Blue Corner
+135
(43%)
Vegas Odds
-155
(61%)
38
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
5'11"
Height
5'11"
193.04 cm
Reach
182.88 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Alex OliveiraL4 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Peter Sobotta · Jul 20L
SUBvs Shavkat Rakhmonov · Oct 20L
SUBvs Randy Brown · Apr 21L
vs Niko Price · Oct 21L
KOvs Kevin Holland · Mar 22Gunnar Nelson
oldest →latest
L
vs Leon Edwards · Mar 19L
vs Gilbert Burns · Sep 19W
vs Takashi Sato · Mar 22W
SUBvs Bryan Barberena · Mar 23L
vs Kevin Holland · Mar 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Alex OliveiraMetricGunnar Nelson
2.99
Strikes / min
1.77
2.55
Strikes absorbed / min
3.06
46%
Strike defense
48%
2.35
TDs / 15 min
2.00
63%
Takedown defense
68%
0.60
Sub atts / 15 min
1.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.44Δ 1.73 — meaningful gap-1.29
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Alex OliveiraGunnar Nelson
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Alex Oliveira(10 fights)Gunnar Nelson(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+40.5-40.5
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-433.0433.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.6-0.6
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.20.2
Alex Oliveira
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights21
Gunnar Nelson
StanceSwitch
Height71.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights16