Welterweight
3 Rounds
Alex Oliveira won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, June 27, 2015·Hollywood, Florida, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Alex Oliveira wins(61.1%)
Actual result: Alex Oliveira wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Alex Oliveira enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Joe Merritt has 20pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Tale of the Tape
Alex Oliveira
Red Corner
VS
Joe Merritt
Blue Corner
-425
(81%)
Vegas Odds
+340
(23%)
38
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'11"
Height
6'0"
193.04 cm
Reach
185.42 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Alex OliveiraL4 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Peter Sobotta · Jul 20L
SUBvs Shavkat Rakhmonov · Oct 20L
SUBvs Randy Brown · Apr 21L
vs Niko Price · Oct 21L
KOvs Kevin Holland · Mar 22Joe MerrittNo prior UFC fights on record.
Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Alex OliveiraMetricJoe Merritt
2.99
Strikes / min
1.53
2.55
Strikes absorbed / min
0.73
46%
Strike defense
66%
2.35
TDs / 15 min
0.00
63%
Takedown defense
68%
0.60
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.44evenly matched on net striking+0.80
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Alex OliveiraJoe Merritt
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Alex Oliveira(10 fights)Joe Merritt(1 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+4.0-4.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-49.049.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-50.050.0
Alex Oliveira
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights21
Joe Merritt
StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach—
Fights1