Welterweight
3 Rounds
Alex Oliveira won · S-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, March 7, 2020·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupAlex Oliveira: WrestlervsMax Griffin: Well-rounded
Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.
Model Prediction: Alex Oliveira wins(50.7%)
Actual result: Alex Oliveira wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Alex Oliveira enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Max Griffin has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Tale of the Tape
Alex Oliveira
Red Corner
VS
Max Griffin
Blue Corner
-125
(56%)
Vegas Odds
+115
(47%)
38
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'11"
Height
5'11"
193.04 cm
Reach
193.04 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Alex OliveiraL4 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Peter Sobotta · Jul 20L
SUBvs Shavkat Rakhmonov · Oct 20L
SUBvs Randy Brown · Apr 21L
vs Niko Price · Oct 21L
KOvs Kevin Holland · Mar 22Max GriffinL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Tim Means · Oct 22L
vs Michael Morales · Jul 23W
vs Jeremiah Wells · Feb 24L
SUBvs Michael Chiesa · Dec 24L
vs Chris Curtis · Jul 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Alex OliveiraMetricMax Griffin
2.99
Strikes / min
3.70
2.55
Strikes absorbed / min
3.69
46%
Strike defense
58%
2.35
TDs / 15 min
1.44
63%
Takedown defense
69%
0.60
Sub atts / 15 min
0.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.44evenly matched on net striking+0.01
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Alex OliveiraMax Griffin
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Alex Oliveira(10 fights)Max Griffin(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+65.6-65.6
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+14.0-14.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.20.2
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.20.2
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
Alex Oliveira
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights21
Max Griffin
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights18