Welterweight
3 Rounds
Alex Oliveira won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, July 25, 2020·Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, United Arab Emirates
Model Prediction: Alex Oliveira wins(75.0%)
Actual result: Alex Oliveira wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Alex Oliveira enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Peter Sobotta has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Stance matchup historically favors Peter Sobotta (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Alex Oliveira
Red Corner
VS
Peter Sobotta
Blue Corner
-182
(65%)
Vegas Odds
+145
(41%)
38
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'11"
Height
6'0"
193.04 cm
Reach
190.5 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Alex OliveiraL4 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Max Griffin · Mar 20L
SUBvs Shavkat Rakhmonov · Oct 20L
SUBvs Randy Brown · Apr 21L
vs Niko Price · Oct 21L
KOvs Kevin Holland · Mar 22Peter Sobotta
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Steve Kennedy · Jun 15L
KOvs Kyle Noke · Nov 15W
vs Nicolas Dalby · Sep 16W
KOvs Ben Saunders · May 17L
KOvs Leon Edwards · Mar 18Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Alex OliveiraMetricPeter Sobotta
2.99
Strikes / min
2.14
2.55
Strikes absorbed / min
2.90
46%
Strike defense
58%
2.35
TDs / 15 min
1.53
63%
Takedown defense
77%
0.60
Sub atts / 15 min
0.50
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.44Δ 1.20 — meaningful gap-0.76
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Alex OliveiraPeter Sobotta
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Alex Oliveira(10 fights)Peter Sobotta(9 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+47.6-47.6
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-721.0721.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.0-0.0
Alex Oliveira
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights21
Peter Sobotta
StanceSouthpaw
Height72.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights9