Welterweight
3 Rounds
Shavkat Rakhmonov won · SUB
UFC Event·Saturday, October 24, 2020·Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, United Arab Emirates
Style matchupAlex Oliveira: WrestlervsShavkat Rakhmonov: Submission grappler
Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.
Model Prediction: Alex Oliveira wins(55.1%)
Actual result: Shavkat Rakhmonov wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Alex Oliveira enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Shavkat Rakhmonov enters on a 5-fight win streak.
- Shavkat Rakhmonov threatens submissions; Alex Oliveira has lost 50% of fights by sub.
- Shavkat Rakhmonov has 22pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Alex Oliveira
Red Corner
VS
Shavkat Rakhmonov
Blue Corner
-112
(53%)
Vegas Odds
-112
(53%)
38
Age
31
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'11"
Height
6'1"
193.04 cm
Reach
195.58 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Alex OliveiraL3 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Max Griffin · Mar 20W
vs Peter Sobotta · Jul 20L
SUBvs Randy Brown · Apr 21L
vs Niko Price · Oct 21L
KOvs Kevin Holland · Mar 22Shavkat RakhmonovW5 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Carlston Harris · Feb 22W
SUBvs Neil Magny · Jun 22W
SUBvs Geoff Neal · Mar 23W
SUBvs Stephen Thompson · Dec 23W
vs Ian Machado Garry · Dec 24Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Alex OliveiraMetricShavkat Rakhmonov
2.99
Strikes / min
3.25
2.55
Strikes absorbed / min
2.17
46%
Strike defense
51%
2.35
TDs / 15 min
1.40
63%
Takedown defense
85%
0.60
Sub atts / 15 min
1.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.44evenly matched on net striking+1.08
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Alex OliveiraShavkat Rakhmonov
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Alex Oliveira(10 fights)Shavkat Rakhmonov(7 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+72.5-72.5
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.3-0.3
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-48.748.7
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-49.649.6
Alex Oliveira
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights21
Shavkat Rakhmonov
StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights7