Flyweight
3 Rounds
Asu Almabayev won · SUB R3
UFC Event·Saturday, November 22, 2025·Doha, Qatar, Qatar
Style matchupAlex Perez: WrestlervsAsu Almabayev: Wrestler
Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.
Model Prediction: Alex Perez wins(55.4%)
Actual result: Asu Almabayev wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Alex Perez has 31pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Alex Perez
Red Corner
VS
Asu Almabayev
Blue Corner
+172
(37%)
Vegas Odds
-205
(67%)
34
Age
32
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'6"
Height
5'4"
165.1 cm
Reach
165.1 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Alex Perez
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Alexandre Pantoja · Jul 22L
vs Muhammad Mokaev · Mar 24W
KOvs Matheus Nicolau · Apr 24L
KOvs Tatsuro Taira · Jun 24W
KOvs Charles Johnson · Jan 26Asu Almabayev
oldest →latest
W
vs CJ Vergara · Mar 24W
vs Jose Johnson · Jun 24W
vs Matheus Nicolau · Oct 24L
KOvs Manel Kape · Mar 25W
vs Jose Ochoa · Jul 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Alex PerezMetricAsu Almabayev
4.41
Strikes / min
2.31
3.20
Strikes absorbed / min
1.99
59%
Strike defense
53%
2.21
TDs / 15 min
4.46
75%
Takedown defense
44%
0.70
Sub atts / 15 min
1.50
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.21evenly matched on net striking+0.32
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Alex PerezAsu Almabayev
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Alex Perez(10 fights)Asu Almabayev(7 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-25.425.4
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+406.0-406.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.80.8
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.6-0.6
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.50.5
Alex Perez
StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach65.0"
Fights14
Asu Almabayev
StanceOrthodox
Height64.0"
Reach65.0"
Fights7