Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Francisco Rivera won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Tuesday, May 15, 2012·Fairfax, Virginia, USA, USA
Style matchupAlex Soto: WrestlervsFrancisco Rivera: Well-rounded
Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.
Model Prediction: Alex Soto wins(51.3%)
Actual result: Francisco Rivera wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Francisco Rivera enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Francisco Rivera is a KO finisher (75% of wins). Alex Soto has lost 50% of fights by KO.
- Francisco Rivera has 68pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Alex Soto (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Alex Soto
Red Corner
VS
Francisco Rivera
Blue Corner
+215
(32%)
Vegas Odds
-235
(70%)
42
Age
44
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'8"
Height
5'8"
180.34 cm
Reach
177.8 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Alex Soto
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Michael McDonald · Nov 11Francisco RiveraL3 streak
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Urijah Faber · Dec 14W
KOvs Alex Caceres · Jun 15L
SUBvs John Lineker · Sep 15L
vs Brad Pickett · Feb 16L
vs Erik Perez · Jul 16Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Alex SotoMetricFrancisco Rivera
2.95
Strikes / min
4.07
5.02
Strikes absorbed / min
3.16
59%
Strike defense
68%
2.82
TDs / 15 min
1.01
0%
Takedown defense
68%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.60
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-2.07Δ 2.98 — meaningful gap+0.91
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Alex SotoFrancisco Rivera
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Alex Soto(2 fights)Francisco Rivera(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+2.2-2.2
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-168.0168.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.0-0.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
0.00.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
0.00.0
Alex Soto
StanceSouthpaw
Height68.0"
Reach—
Fights2
Francisco Rivera
StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights10